TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Daniel Tuma vs Karel Kapras 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118118––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:18 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeKarel Kapras to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDaniel Tuma above · Karel Kapras below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 55 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Karel Kapras at 55.8%
55 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Tuma 5–5 Karel Kapras Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:1855.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kapras
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuma 1586 vs Kapras 1539
Tuma
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuma 60% vs Kapras 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuma 40% vs Kapras 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuma +1 · Kapras +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Kapras) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tuma form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuma 2.10 / Kapras 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Kapras)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222546
Tuma2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 166 of 354
Down 0–1, comes back28% 53 of 188
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 99
Kapras1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite44% won 28 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it70% 19 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTuma5wins
AwayKapras5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTuma62.5%5 of 8
AwayKaprasn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuma8Kapras2n = 10Tuma took 8 of 10
S2Tuma5Kapras5n = 10split evenly
S3Tuma3Kapras7n = 10Kapras took 7 of 10
S4Tuma3Kapras4n = 7Kapras took 4 of 7
S5Tuma2Kapras2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTumaKaprasT − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.437.1+0.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTumaKaprasBasisWin rate · lifetime782 / 1490 vs 157 / 31552.5%49.8%782 / 1490 vs 157 / 315Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KaprasTuma 2.10/Kapras 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Kapras · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tuma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 20:30D. Tuma4111118113K. Kapras32681171
WSep 1 · 21:28D. Tuma47128511113K. Kapras45101111492
WSep 1 · 20:30D. Tuma47117117113K. Kapras3741161152
LAug 13 · 18:00D. Tuma29113691K. Kapras4071111113
WMay 1 · 15:00D. Tuma331111113K. Kapras174760
LNov 5 · 20:30D. Tuma531111813102K. Kapras53961115123
LOct 29 · 21:00D. Tuma3611351162K. Kapras48911116113
LJun 9 · 21:02D. Tuma2511860K. Kapras351311113
LJun 9 · 18:30D. Tuma30711661K. Kapras4111811113
WApr 10 · 20:00D. Tuma331111113K. Kapras237970
D. Tuma10
WOct 1 · 14:30M. Vizek1.676117101D. Tuma2.1011511123LOct 1 · 13:28D. Tuma1.801011871M. Volf1.9112811113WOct 1 · 12:30D. Tuma2.201611113M. Vizek1.6114880WOct 1 · 11:00D. Tuma2.631114113P. Zmuda1.4491260LOct 1 · 10:00M. Volf1.83551111113D. Tuma1.8311118852LSep 30 · 02:58P. Zmuda1.361111113D. Tuma3.005780LSep 30 · 01:30D. Tuma2.204750P. Zmuda1.611111113WSep 30 · 00:30K. Schopf1.67916121262D. Tuma2.1011141410113LSep 29 · 23:30V. Dvorak1.571111117113D. Tuma2.2541371142LSep 29 · 22:30D. Tuma1.8341110101R. Krejci1.8311912123
K. Kapras10
WOct 1 · 14:00K. Kapras2.0011711113M. Sobisek1.73711581WSep 29 · 21:00M. Bittner2.00118661K. Kapras1.7331111113LSep 29 · 20:30D. Tuma1.8311118113K. Kapras1.83681171WSep 29 · 19:30K. Kapras1.75111111113P. Zmuda1.85913661LSep 29 · 18:30M. Bittner2.2513711113K. Kapras1.571111571LSep 10 · 21:30M. Sobisek1.80111310113K. Kapras1.907111251LSep 10 · 20:30K. Kapras1.80921231M. Sobisek1.91111110113LSep 10 · 19:00K. Kapras1.73111111272M. Volf2.00371311113WSep 10 · 18:00J. Stolfa1.7311450K. Kapras2.001311113LSep 1 · 21:28D. Tuma1.91128511113K. Kapras1.80101111492
Upcoming Matches
D. Tuma
Oct 1 · 16:30D. Tuma1.83M. Sobisek1.83—Oct 2 · 18:30D. Tuma2.10M. Vizek1.67—Oct 2 · 19:30D. Tuma1.83S. Kadavy1.83—Oct 2 · 20:30D. Tuma1.91J. Pozarsky1.80—Oct 2 · 22:30D. Tuma1.72R. Pavelka2.00—Oct 2 · 23:30D. Tuma2.25K. Brozhik1.57—Oct 3 · 00:30D. Tuma1.25M. Vedmoch3.75—Oct 3 · 01:30D. Tuma1.83M. Sobisek1.83—
K. Kapras
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