TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Daniel Tuma vs Martin Vizek 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1614118118––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:25 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMartin Vizek to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Martin Vizek @ 1.61 · Lost
How it is goingDaniel Tuma above · Martin Vizek below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 68 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Martin Vizek at 58.9%
68 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Tuma 15–25 Martin Vizek Daniel Tuma has won 15 of their 40 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 11:2558.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vizek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-25 in 40
Vizek
Wrong
gap of 10 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuma 1570 vs Vizek 1586
Vizek
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuma 40% vs Vizek 20%
Tuma
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuma 40% vs Vizek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuma +1 · Vizek -3
Vizek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Vizek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vizek form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuma 2.20 / Vizek 1.615
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Vizek)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222504
Tuma2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 166 of 354
Down 0–1, comes back28% 53 of 188
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 99
Vizek1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 47 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it83% 29 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTuma2wins
AwayVizek8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVizek leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTuma40%2 of 5
AwayVizek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuma5Vizek5n = 10split evenly
S2Tuma4Vizek6n = 10Vizek took 6 of 10
S3Tuma5Vizek5n = 10split evenly
S4Tuma1Vizek5n = 6Vizek took 5 of 6
S5Tuma0Vizek4n = 4Vizek took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricTumaVizekT − VBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.443.2−5.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTumaVizekBasisWin rate · lifetime780 / 1487 vs 215 / 42652.5%50.5%780 / 1487 vs 215 / 426Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VizekTuma 2.20/Vizek 1.61
Miss
What we said
58.9%
Vizek · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Martin Vizek @ 1.61 · Lost
What happened
3–0
Tuma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 00:00D. Tuma247890M. Vizek331111113
LSep 12 · 23:30D. Tuma51514131272M. Vizek5911121114113
WAug 15 · 02:30D. Tuma50111411143M. Vizek469169121
LAug 14 · 01:30D. Tuma51131011982M. Vizek531112811113
LAug 1 · 01:30D. Tuma341011851M. Vizek4212811113
LJul 30 · 02:58D. Tuma2514380M. Vizek381611113
LJul 30 · 01:00D. Tuma4211134682M. Vizek539111111113
LJul 24 · 23:30D. Tuma4011711652M. Vizek49911711113
LJul 17 · 22:30D. Tuma2361070M. Vizek341112113
WJul 5 · 02:00D. Tuma341111123M. Vizek2578100
D. Tuma10
LOct 1 · 13:28D. Tuma1.801011871M. Volf1.9112811113WOct 1 · 11:00D. Tuma2.631114113P. Zmuda1.4491260LOct 1 · 10:00M. Volf1.83551111113D. Tuma1.8311118852LSep 30 · 02:58P. Zmuda1.361111113D. Tuma3.005780LSep 30 · 01:30D. Tuma2.204750P. Zmuda1.611111113WSep 30 · 00:30K. Schopf1.67916121262D. Tuma2.1011141410113LSep 29 · 23:30V. Dvorak1.571111117113D. Tuma2.2541371142LSep 29 · 22:30D. Tuma1.8341110101R. Krejci1.8311912123LSep 29 · 21:30P. Zmuda1.6111134113D. Tuma2.209111171WSep 29 · 20:30D. Tuma1.8311118113K. Kapras1.83681171
M. Vizek10
WOct 1 · 12:58P. Zmuda1.809750M. Vizek1.911111113LOct 1 · 11:30M. Vizek1.806712111M. Volf1.91111110133LOct 1 · 10:30P. Zmuda2.0071111113M. Vizek1.73119981LSep 29 · 03:00M. Sychra1.6531111113M. Vizek2.10118441WSep 29 · 01:30M. Vizek1.911011813113K. Schopf1.80127111152LSep 29 · 00:30V. Dvorak1.8011113113M. Vizek1.917111191LSep 28 · 23:30M. Regner1.611111133M. Vizek2.2089110LSep 28 · 22:30M. Vizek2.0091181152M. Sychra1.73119117113WSep 28 · 20:58M. Vizek1.8311913113M. Nohejl1.838111161WSep 28 · 20:30M. Nohejl1.837820M. Vizek1.831111113
Upcoming Matches
D. Tuma
Oct 1 · 14:30D. Tuma2.10M. Vizek1.67—Oct 1 · 15:30D. Tuma2.10K. Kapras1.67—Oct 1 · 16:30D. Tuma1.83M. Sobisek1.83—Oct 2 · 18:30D. Tuma2.10M. Vizek1.67—Oct 2 · 19:30D. Tuma1.83S. Kadavy1.83—Oct 2 · 20:30D. Tuma1.91J. Pozarsky1.80—Oct 2 · 22:30D. Tuma1.72R. Pavelka2.00—Oct 2 · 23:30D. Tuma2.25K. Brozhik1.57—Oct 3 · 00:30D. Tuma1.27M. Vedmoch3.30—Oct 3 · 01:30D. Tuma1.83M. Sobisek1.83—
M. Vizek
Oct 1 · 14:30M. Vizek1.67D. Tuma2.10—Oct 1 · 15:00M. Vizek1.75P. Zmuda1.90—Oct 1 · 15:00M. Vizek1.80M. Sobisek1.91—Oct 1 · 16:00M. Vizek2.20K. Kapras1.61—Oct 2 · 18:30M. Vizek1.67D. Tuma2.10—Oct 2 · 19:00M. Vizek2.38J. Pozarsky1.53—Oct 2 · 20:00M. Vizek1.83S. Kadavy1.83—Oct 2 · 23:00M. Vizek1.80M. Volf1.91—Oct 3 · 00:00M. Vizek1.91P. Pycha1.80—Oct 3 · 01:30M. Vizek1.85S. Kadavy1.85—
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