TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Daniel Tuma vs Petr Zmuda 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191412116––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:54 and never touched: 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timePetr Zmuda to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDaniel Tuma above · Petr Zmuda below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 63 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Petr Zmuda at 67.7%
63 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Tuma 11–18 Petr Zmuda Daniel Tuma has won 11 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5467.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 1.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Zmuda
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-18 in 29
Zmuda
Wrong
gap of 7 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuma 1552 vs Zmuda 1655
Zmuda
Wrong
both rated, 104 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuma 20% vs Zmuda 60%
Zmuda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuma 30% vs Zmuda 60%
Zmuda
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuma -3 · Zmuda +1
Tuma
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Zmuda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tuma form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuma 2.625 / Zmuda 1.444
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Zmuda)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222400
Tuma2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 166 of 354
Down 0–1, comes back28% 53 of 188
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 99
Zmuda1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 66 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it100% 29 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it87% 46 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTuma2wins
AwayZmuda8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZmuda leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTuman = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayZmuda100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuma2Zmuda8n = 10Zmuda took 8 of 10
S2Tuma2Zmuda8n = 10Zmuda took 8 of 10
S3Tuma4Zmuda6n = 10Zmuda took 6 of 10
S4Tuma3Zmuda3n = 6split evenly
S5Tuma1Zmuda2n = 3Zmuda took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricTumaZmudaT − ZBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.139.7−6.6per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTumaZmudaBasisWin rate · lifetime779 / 1486 vs 136 / 25852.4%52.7%779 / 1486 vs 136 / 258Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZmudaTuma 2.63/Zmuda 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Zmuda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tuma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 02:58D. Tuma205780P. Zmuda331111113
LSep 30 · 01:30D. Tuma164750P. Zmuda331111113
LSep 29 · 21:30D. Tuma389111171P. Zmuda3911134113
LSep 29 · 18:00D. Tuma225980P. Zmuda331111113
LSep 24 · 13:30D. Tuma3761151142P. Zmuda46118115113
LSep 24 · 10:00D. Tuma4251111962P. Zmuda49117911113
LSep 22 · 03:30D. Tuma388811111P. Zmuda4311118133
WSep 22 · 00:30D. Tuma4011711113P. Zmuda34711881
WSep 17 · 07:30D. Tuma531111812113P. Zmuda52913111092
LAug 22 · 09:00D. Tuma2551190P. Zmuda351113113
D. Tuma10
LOct 1 · 10:00M. Volf1.83551111113D. Tuma1.8311118852LSep 30 · 02:58P. Zmuda1.361111113D. Tuma3.005780LSep 30 · 01:30D. Tuma2.204750P. Zmuda1.611111113WSep 30 · 00:30K. Schopf1.67916121262D. Tuma2.1011141410113LSep 29 · 23:30V. Dvorak1.571111117113D. Tuma2.2541371142LSep 29 · 22:30D. Tuma1.8341110101R. Krejci1.8311912123LSep 29 · 21:30P. Zmuda1.6111134113D. Tuma2.209111171WSep 29 · 20:30D. Tuma1.8311118113K. Kapras1.83681171WSep 29 · 19:00D. Tuma2.38119816113M. Bittner1.53911111492LSep 29 · 18:00P. Zmuda1.731111113D. Tuma2.005980
P. Zmuda10
WOct 1 · 10:30P. Zmuda2.0071111113M. Vizek1.73119981LOct 1 · 09:30J. Stolfa1.851111113P. Zmuda1.853270WOct 1 · 08:00P. Zmuda1.444111411113M. Vedmoch2.63117121382WOct 1 · 07:30J. Plachy2.75115981P. Zmuda1.4091111113LOct 1 · 06:00P. Zmuda1.80112871J. Stolfa1.9161111113WSep 30 · 02:58P. Zmuda1.361111113D. Tuma3.005780LSep 30 · 02:30P. Zmuda2.201289101V. Dvorak1.61101111123WSep 30 · 01:30D. Tuma2.204750P. Zmuda1.611111113WSep 29 · 21:30P. Zmuda1.6111134113D. Tuma2.209111171WSep 29 · 18:00P. Zmuda1.731111113D. Tuma2.005980
Upcoming Matches
D. Tuma
Oct 1 · 12:30D. Tuma2.10M. Vizek1.67—Oct 1 · 14:30D. Tuma2.20M. Vizek1.61—Oct 1 · 15:30D. Tuma2.10K. Kapras1.67—Oct 1 · 16:30D. Tuma1.83M. Sobisek1.83—Oct 2 · 18:30D. Tuma—M. Vizek——Oct 2 · 19:30D. Tuma—S. Kadavy——Oct 2 · 20:30D. Tuma—J. Pozarsky——Oct 2 · 22:30D. Tuma—R. Pavelka——Oct 2 · 23:30D. Tuma—K. Brozhik——Oct 3 · 00:30D. Tuma—M. Vedmoch——
P. Zmuda
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