TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Petr Zmuda vs Michal Vedmoch 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
41111714121113118
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:54 and never touched: 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timePetr Zmuda to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Zmuda above · Michal Vedmoch below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 102 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Petr Zmuda at 67.7%
102 points played in total.
H2H Petr Zmuda 7–4 Michal Vedmoch Michal Vedmoch has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5467.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 1.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Zmuda
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Zmuda
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmuda 1653 vs Vedmoch 1491
Zmuda
Correct
both rated, 162 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmuda 60% vs Vedmoch 20%
Zmuda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmuda 60% vs Vedmoch 30%
Zmuda
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmuda +1 · Vedmoch -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Zmuda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vedmoch form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmuda 1.444 / Vedmoch 2.625
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Zmuda)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222353
Zmuda1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 66 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it100% 29 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it87% 46 of 53
Vedmoch2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 110 of 250
Down 0–1, comes back20% 25 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back11% 8 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZmuda6wins
AwayVedmoch4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZmuda leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmuda100%5 of 5
AwayVedmoch80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmuda5Vedmoch5n = 10split evenly
S2Zmuda5Vedmoch5n = 10split evenly
S3Zmuda5Vedmoch5n = 10split evenly
S4Zmuda4Vedmoch1n = 5Zmuda took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricZmudaVedmochZ − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.733.6+1.1per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmudaVedmochBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 255 vs 709 / 134152.6%52.9%134 / 255 vs 709 / 1341Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZmudaZmuda 1.44/Vedmoch 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Zmuda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zmuda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 09:00P. Zmuda2161140M. Vedmoch351113113
WSep 23 · 08:00P. Zmuda3811511113M. Vedmoch24311371
WSep 22 · 17:00P. Zmuda331111113M. Vedmoch188640
WSep 22 · 15:00P. Zmuda341211113M. Vedmoch2710890
WSep 21 · 22:00P. Zmuda4481213113M. Vedmoch4111101191
LJul 26 · 22:30P. Zmuda2367100M. Vedmoch341111123
WJul 21 · 01:00P. Zmuda4111118113M. Vedmoch29881121
LJul 4 · 01:30P. Zmuda4361111692M. Vedmoch51119911113
LJul 1 · 11:00P. Zmuda247890M. Vedmoch331111113
WJul 1 · 06:30P. Zmuda46117215113M. Vedmoch44611111332
P. Zmuda10
WOct 1 · 07:30J. Plachy2.75115981P. Zmuda1.4091111113LOct 1 · 06:00P. Zmuda1.80112871J. Stolfa1.9161111113WSep 30 · 02:58P. Zmuda1.361111113D. Tuma3.005780LSep 30 · 02:30P. Zmuda2.201289101V. Dvorak1.61101111123WSep 30 · 01:30D. Tuma2.204750P. Zmuda1.611111113LSep 30 · 00:00P. Zmuda1.67911831R. Krejci2.1011911113WSep 29 · 23:00K. Schopf1.614980P. Zmuda2.201111113WSep 29 · 21:30P. Zmuda1.6111134113D. Tuma2.209111171WSep 29 · 20:00P. Zmuda1.91341111123M. Bittner1.80111174102LSep 29 · 19:30K. Kapras1.75111111113P. Zmuda1.85913661
M. Vedmoch10
LOct 1 · 07:00J. Stolfa1.8381513123M. Vedmoch1.83111311101WOct 1 · 06:30M. Vedmoch1.6711811113J. Plachy2.10711991LSep 28 · 02:00M. Vedmoch2.6311117462V. Cermak1.44761111113LSep 28 · 01:00M. Vedmoch3.501561091D. Tuma1.28131112113LSep 28 · 00:00M. Chlebecek1.44371311113M. Vedmoch2.63111111162LSep 27 · 22:30T. Janata1.5011155113M. Vedmoch2.504131181WSep 27 · 21:00M. Vedmoch1.4861111153L. Krticka2.451135131LSep 27 · 20:00M. Vedmoch1.739450J. Stolfa2.001111113WSep 27 · 19:30L. Krticka2.6396120M. Vedmoch1.441111143LSep 27 · 18:00M. Vedmoch2.5051151192R. Pavelka1.501111133113
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