TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Vizek vs Matej Volf 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
61171112101113––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:21 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Vizek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Vizek above · Matej Volf below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 81 set 4, 11-13 · our read held Martin Vizek at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Martin Vizek 8–6 Matej Volf Matej Volf has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2154.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vizek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Vizek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vizek 1586 vs Volf 1629
Volf
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vizek 20% vs Volf 80%
Volf
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vizek 30% vs Volf 80%
Volf
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vizek -2 · Volf +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vizek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volf form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVizek 1.80 / Volf 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vizek)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222561
Vizek1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 47 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it83% 29 of 35
Volf1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 34 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back27% 12 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVizek5wins
AwayVolf5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVizekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVolf62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vizek2Volf8n = 10Volf took 8 of 10
S2Vizek5Volf5n = 10split evenly
S3Vizek6Volf4n = 10Vizek took 6 of 10
S4Vizek5Volf4n = 9Vizek took 5 of 9
S5Vizek4Volf2n = 6Vizek took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVizekVolfVizek − VolfBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match42.743.5−0.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVizekVolfBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 426 vs 206 / 39550.5%52.2%215 / 426 vs 206 / 395Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VizekVizek 1.80/Volf 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Volf won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 11:30M. Vizek366712111M. Volf45111110133
WSep 10 · 22:30M. Vizek46841211113M. Volf46111110862
LSep 6 · 21:30M. Vizek4551191192M. Volf48117118113
WSep 6 · 20:00M. Vizek5912101411123M. Volf541412126102
WFeb 28 · 02:30M. Vizek49111188113M. Volf4899111182
LJan 11 · 01:00M. Vizek32571191M. Volf3911116113
WNov 1 · 18:00M. Vizek528121011113M. Volf48111012872
LNov 1 · 15:00M. Vizek321141161M. Volf4213117113
LOct 26 · 20:00M. Vizek43611101152M. Volf45115126113
WApr 5 · 23:00M. Vizek331111113M. Volf209560
M. Vizek10
LOct 1 · 10:30P. Zmuda2.0071111113M. Vizek1.73119981LSep 29 · 03:00M. Sychra1.6531111113M. Vizek2.10118441WSep 29 · 01:30M. Vizek1.911011813113K. Schopf1.80127111152LSep 29 · 00:30V. Dvorak1.8011113113M. Vizek1.917111191LSep 28 · 23:30M. Regner1.611111133M. Vizek2.2089110LSep 28 · 22:30M. Vizek2.0091181152M. Sychra1.73119117113WSep 28 · 20:58M. Vizek1.8311913113M. Nohejl1.838111161WSep 28 · 20:30M. Nohejl1.837820M. Vizek1.831111113LSep 28 · 19:30M. Vizek1.9177120M. Sychra1.801111143LSep 28 · 18:30K. Schopf2.001111113M. Vizek1.738770
M. Volf10
LOct 1 · 12:00M. Volf1.67121121172P. Zmuda2.101061113113WOct 1 · 10:00M. Volf1.83551111113D. Tuma1.8311118852WSep 23 · 13:30V. Cermak2.1061111992M. Volf1.65119511113LSep 23 · 12:00D. Tuma1.8011911163M. Volf1.919112141WSep 23 · 11:00M. Sobisek1.446111311112M. Volf2.63115157133WSep 23 · 10:30M. Volf1.67115511113V. Cermak2.1091111782WSep 22 · 17:30M. Volf1.801111113T. Holik1.908880LSep 22 · 16:30P. Zmuda2.25114811113M. Volf1.5781111872WSep 22 · 15:30M. Volf1.9111116113T. Holik1.80851141WSep 22 · 14:30M. Vedmoch2.005770M. Volf1.731111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Vizek
Oct 1 · 14:30M. Vizek1.61D. Tuma2.20—Oct 1 · 15:00M. Vizek1.80M. Sobisek1.91—Oct 1 · 16:00M. Vizek2.20K. Kapras1.61—Oct 2 · 18:30M. Vizek—D. Tuma——Oct 2 · 19:00M. Vizek—J. Pozarsky——Oct 2 · 20:00M. Vizek—S. Kadavy——Oct 2 · 23:00M. Vizek—M. Volf——Oct 3 · 00:00M. Vizek—P. Pycha——Oct 3 · 01:30M. Vizek—S. Kadavy——Oct 3 · 02:30M. Vizek—R. Krejci——
M. Volf
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