TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Matej Volf vs Petr Zmuda 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12101162111113711
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:58 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Volf to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMatej Volf above · Petr Zmuda below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 94 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Matej Volf at 57.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Matej Volf 4–2 Petr Zmuda Petr Zmuda has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5857.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Volf
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Volf
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Volf 1629 vs Zmuda 1638
Zmuda
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Volf 80% vs Zmuda 60%
Volf
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Volf 80% vs Zmuda 50%
Volf
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Volf +3 · Zmuda -1
Volf
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Volf) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmuda form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVolf 1.666 / Zmuda 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Volf)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222594
Volf1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 35 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it78% 28 of 36
Zmuda2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 23 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back22% 7 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeVolf4wins
AwayZmuda2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderVolf leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVolf80%4 of 5
AwayZmudan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Volf5Zmuda1n = 6Volf took 5 of 6
S2Volf5Zmuda1n = 6Volf took 5 of 6
S3Volf3Zmuda3n = 6split evenly
S4Volf2Zmuda2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricVolfZmudaV − ZBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match37.832.8+5.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVolfZmudaBasisWin rate · lifetime206 / 395 vs 136 / 25952.2%52.5%206 / 395 vs 136 / 259Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VolfVolf 1.67/Zmuda 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Volf · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zmuda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 22 · 16:30M. Volf4581111872P. Zmuda45114811113
WSep 17 · 09:28M. Volf3913114113P. Zmuda391181191
LSep 17 · 08:30M. Volf351261071P. Zmuda44101112113
WAug 10 · 23:00M. Volf361111143P. Zmuda1934120
WOct 31 · 07:30M. Volf331111113P. Zmuda217860
WAug 10 · 15:30M. Volf3911116113P. Zmuda29861141
M. Volf10
WOct 1 · 11:30M. Vizek1.806712111M. Volf1.91111110133WOct 1 · 10:00M. Volf1.83551111113D. Tuma1.8311118852WSep 23 · 13:30V. Cermak2.1061111992M. Volf1.65119511113LSep 23 · 12:00D. Tuma1.8011911163M. Volf1.919112141WSep 23 · 11:00M. Sobisek1.446111311112M. Volf2.63115157133WSep 23 · 10:30M. Volf1.67115511113V. Cermak2.1091111782WSep 22 · 17:30M. Volf1.801111113T. Holik1.908880LSep 22 · 16:30P. Zmuda2.25114811113M. Volf1.5781111872WSep 22 · 15:30M. Volf1.9111116113T. Holik1.80851141WSep 22 · 14:30M. Vedmoch2.005770M. Volf1.731111113
P. Zmuda10
LOct 1 · 11:00D. Tuma2.631114113P. Zmuda1.4491260WOct 1 · 10:30P. Zmuda2.0071111113M. Vizek1.73119981LOct 1 · 09:30J. Stolfa1.851111113P. Zmuda1.853270WOct 1 · 08:00P. Zmuda1.444111411113M. Vedmoch2.63117121382WOct 1 · 07:30J. Plachy2.75115981P. Zmuda1.4091111113LOct 1 · 06:00P. Zmuda1.80112871J. Stolfa1.9161111113WSep 30 · 02:58P. Zmuda1.361111113D. Tuma3.005780LSep 30 · 02:30P. Zmuda2.201289101V. Dvorak1.61101111123WSep 30 · 01:30D. Tuma2.204750P. Zmuda1.611111113WSep 22 · 16:30P. Zmuda2.25114811113M. Volf1.5781111872
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