TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Vizek vs Daniel Tuma 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111157111012––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:19 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMartin Vizek to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Vizek above · Daniel Tuma below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 73 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Martin Vizek at 56.2%
73 points played in total.
H2H Martin Vizek 25–16 Daniel Tuma Daniel Tuma has won 16 of their 41 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Tuma beat Vizek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:1956.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vizek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
25-16 in 41
Vizek
Wrong
gap of 9 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vizek 1588 vs Tuma 1574
Vizek
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vizek 20% vs Tuma 40%
Tuma
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vizek 30% vs Tuma 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vizek +1 · Tuma -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Vizek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vizek form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVizek 1.666 / Tuma 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Vizek)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222560
Vizek1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 47 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it83% 29 of 35
Tuma2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 166 of 354
Down 0–1, comes back28% 53 of 188
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVizek8wins
AwayTuma2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVizek leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVizek100%5 of 5
AwayTuma40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vizek5Tuma5n = 10split evenly
S2Vizek6Tuma4n = 10Vizek took 6 of 10
S3Vizek5Tuma5n = 10split evenly
S4Vizek5Tuma1n = 6Vizek took 5 of 6
S5Vizek4Tuma0n = 4Vizek took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVizekTumaV − TBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.737.8+5.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVizekTumaBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 428 vs 781 / 148950.5%52.5%216 / 428 vs 781 / 1489Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VizekVizek 1.67/Tuma 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Vizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tuma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 12:30M. Vizek3014880D. Tuma381611113
WSep 21 · 00:00M. Vizek331111113D. Tuma247890
WSep 12 · 23:30M. Vizek5911121114113D. Tuma51514131272
LAug 15 · 02:30M. Vizek469169121D. Tuma50111411143
WAug 14 · 01:30M. Vizek531112811113D. Tuma51131011982
WAug 1 · 01:30M. Vizek4212811113D. Tuma341011851
WJul 30 · 02:58M. Vizek381611113D. Tuma2514380
WJul 30 · 01:00M. Vizek539111111113D. Tuma4211134682
WJul 24 · 23:30M. Vizek49911711113D. Tuma4011711652
WJul 17 · 22:30M. Vizek341112113D. Tuma2361070
M. Vizek10
LOct 1 · 15:00M. Sobisek1.911111113M. Vizek1.807860WOct 1 · 12:58P. Zmuda1.809750M. Vizek1.911111113LOct 1 · 12:30D. Tuma2.201611113M. Vizek1.6114880LOct 1 · 11:30M. Vizek1.806712111M. Volf1.91111110133LOct 1 · 10:30P. Zmuda2.0071111113M. Vizek1.73119981LSep 29 · 03:00M. Sychra1.6531111113M. Vizek2.10118441WSep 29 · 01:30M. Vizek1.911011813113K. Schopf1.80127111152LSep 29 · 00:30V. Dvorak1.8011113113M. Vizek1.917111191LSep 28 · 23:30M. Regner1.611111133M. Vizek2.2089110LSep 28 · 22:30M. Vizek2.0091181152M. Sychra1.73119117113
D. Tuma10
WOct 1 · 15:30D. Tuma2.101111113K. Kapras1.676880LOct 1 · 13:28D. Tuma1.801011871M. Volf1.9112811113WOct 1 · 12:30D. Tuma2.201611113M. Vizek1.6114880WOct 1 · 11:00D. Tuma2.631114113P. Zmuda1.4491260LOct 1 · 10:00M. Volf1.83551111113D. Tuma1.8311118852LSep 30 · 02:58P. Zmuda1.361111113D. Tuma3.005780LSep 30 · 01:30D. Tuma2.204750P. Zmuda1.611111113WSep 30 · 00:30K. Schopf1.67916121262D. Tuma2.1011141410113LSep 29 · 23:30V. Dvorak1.571111117113D. Tuma2.2541371142LSep 29 · 22:30D. Tuma1.8341110101R. Krejci1.8311912123
Upcoming Matches
M. Vizek
Oct 1 · 16:00M. Vizek2.20K. Kapras1.61—Oct 2 · 18:30M. Vizek1.67D. Tuma2.10—Oct 2 · 19:00M. Vizek2.25J. Pozarsky1.57—Oct 2 · 20:00M. Vizek1.83S. Kadavy1.83—Oct 2 · 23:00M. Vizek1.80M. Volf1.91—Oct 3 · 00:00M. Vizek1.91P. Pycha1.80—Oct 3 · 01:30M. Vizek1.85S. Kadavy1.85—Oct 3 · 02:30M. Vizek1.52R. Krejci2.35—
D. Tuma
Oct 1 · 16:30D. Tuma1.83M. Sobisek1.83—Oct 2 · 18:30D. Tuma2.10M. Vizek1.67—Oct 2 · 19:30D. Tuma1.83S. Kadavy1.83—Oct 2 · 20:30D. Tuma1.91J. Pozarsky1.80—Oct 2 · 22:30D. Tuma1.72R. Pavelka2.00—Oct 2 · 23:30D. Tuma2.25K. Brozhik1.57—Oct 3 · 00:30D. Tuma1.25M. Vedmoch3.75—Oct 3 · 01:30D. Tuma1.83M. Sobisek1.83—
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.