TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Karel Kapras vs Martin Sobisek 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117711115118––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:56 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Sobisek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKarel Kapras above · Martin Sobisek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 71 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Martin Sobisek at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Karel Kapras 13–15 Martin Sobisek Karel Kapras has won 13 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5654.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sobisek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-15 in 28
Sobisek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapras 1525 vs Sobisek 1591
Sobisek
Wrong
both rated, 66 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapras 40% vs Sobisek 80%
Sobisek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapras 30% vs Sobisek 50%
Sobisek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapras +1 · Sobisek +4
Sobisek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sobisek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobisek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapras 2.00 / Sobisek 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sobisek)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13221070
Kapras2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 29)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 12 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back26% 6 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Sobisek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 29)
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 103 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it97% 59 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it79% 81 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapras6wins
AwaySobisek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKapras leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapras83.3%5 of 6
AwaySobisek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapras6Sobisek4n = 10Kapras took 6 of 10
S2Kapras5Sobisek5n = 10split evenly
S3Kapras6Sobisek4n = 10Kapras took 6 of 10
S4Kapras4Sobisek2n = 6Kapras took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaprasSobisekK − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.934.3+1.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaprasSobisekBasisWin rate · lifetime156 / 314 vs 566 / 119949.7%47.2%156 / 314 vs 566 / 1199Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SobisekKapras 2.00/Sobisek 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sobisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kapras won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 21:30K. Kapras357111251M. Sobisek45111310113
LSep 10 · 20:30K. Kapras26921231M. Sobisek43111110113
LAug 26 · 18:30K. Kapras2571080M. Sobisek341112113
WAug 25 · 19:00K. Kapras331111113M. Sobisek196580
WAug 6 · 18:30K. Kapras331111113M. Sobisek174490
WMay 26 · 20:30K. Kapras3411111113M. Sobisek34117791
WMay 1 · 16:30K. Kapras351111133M. Sobisek2274110
WMar 16 · 20:30K. Kapras4312119113M. Sobisek361091161
LMar 12 · 21:00K. Kapras4111281192M. Sobisek48711118113
WFeb 27 · 16:00K. Kapras541191211113M. Sobisek4591114562
K. Kapras10
WSep 29 · 21:00M. Bittner2.00118661K. Kapras1.7331111113LSep 29 · 20:30D. Tuma1.8311118113K. Kapras1.83681171WSep 29 · 19:30K. Kapras1.75111111113P. Zmuda1.85913661LSep 29 · 18:30M. Bittner2.2513711113K. Kapras1.571111571LSep 10 · 21:30M. Sobisek1.80111310113K. Kapras1.907111251LSep 10 · 20:30K. Kapras1.80921231M. Sobisek1.91111110113LSep 10 · 19:00K. Kapras1.73111111272M. Volf2.00371311113WSep 10 · 18:00J. Stolfa1.7311450K. Kapras2.001311113LSep 1 · 21:28D. Tuma1.91128511113K. Kapras1.80101111492LSep 1 · 20:30D. Tuma2.20117117113K. Kapras1.6141161152
M. Sobisek10
WSep 29 · 13:30M. Sobisek1.57611511113V. Cermak2.2511811792WSep 29 · 12:00M. Sobisek1.731111113V. Cermak2.007510WSep 29 · 11:30J. Trefny2.101011851M. Sobisek1.6712911113WSep 29 · 10:00M. Sobisek2.63111195143J. Stolfa1.44671111122LSep 29 · 09:00V. Cermak2.20111011113M. Sobisek1.61612991LSep 29 · 08:00J. Stolfa1.531211113M. Sobisek2.3810770WSep 29 · 07:00V. Cermak1.9121170M. Sobisek1.801113113LSep 29 · 06:30M. Sobisek1.6171070J. Trefny2.201112113WSep 10 · 21:30M. Sobisek1.80111310113K. Kapras1.907111251WSep 10 · 20:30K. Kapras1.80921231M. Sobisek1.91111110113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kapras
M. Sobisek
Oct 1 · 16:30M. Sobisek1.83D. Tuma1.83—Oct 1 · 18:30M. Sobisek1.91K. Kapras1.80—Oct 1 · 19:00M. Sobisek2.20K. Brozhik1.61—Oct 1 · 20:00M. Sobisek2.20J. Stolfa1.61—Oct 2 · 23:00M. Sobisek1.30M. Vedmoch3.40—Oct 3 · 00:00M. Sobisek1.30R. Pavelka3.15—Oct 3 · 01:30M. Sobisek1.83D. Tuma1.83—Oct 3 · 02:30M. Sobisek2.20K. Brozhik1.61—
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