TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Pozarsky vs Daniel Tuma 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119711411111119
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:15 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeJiri Pozarsky to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Pozarsky above · Daniel Tuma below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-1
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 85 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Jiri Pozarsky at 56.2%
85 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Pozarsky 12–13 Daniel Tuma Jiri Pozarsky has won 12 of their 25 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:1556.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Pozarsky
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-13 in 25
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pozarsky 1577 vs Tuma 1597
Tuma
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pozarsky 20% vs Tuma 60%
Tuma
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pozarsky 40% vs Tuma 60%
Tuma
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pozarsky -2 · Tuma +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Pozarsky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tuma form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPozarsky 1.666 / Tuma 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Pozarsky)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13227228
Pozarsky1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 30 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it72% 26 of 36
Tuma2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 170 of 358
Down 0–1, comes back28% 53 of 188
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePozarsky5wins
AwayTuma5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePozarsky71.4%5 of 7
AwayTuma100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pozarsky7Tuma3n = 10Pozarsky took 7 of 10
S2Pozarsky5Tuma5n = 10split evenly
S3Pozarsky5Tuma5n = 10split evenly
S4Pozarsky2Tuma2n = 4split evenly
S5Pozarsky1Tuma2n = 3Tuma took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPozarskyTumaP − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.434.0+2.4per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPozarskyTumaBasisWin rate · lifetime142 / 308 vs 781 / 149046.1%52.4%142 / 308 vs 781 / 1490Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PozarskyPozarsky 1.67/Tuma 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Pozarsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pozarsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 16:00J. Pozarsky5111891582D. Tuma515111113113
WAug 17 · 06:00J. Pozarsky331111113D. Tuma196670
WAug 12 · 21:30J. Pozarsky361114113D. Tuma2471250
WAug 12 · 20:30J. Pozarsky551115117113D. Tuma4361741152
LJul 8 · 14:00J. Pozarsky204970D. Tuma331111113
LJul 4 · 10:00J. Pozarsky397139101D. Tuma45111111123
WJun 10 · 06:00J. Pozarsky331111113D. Tuma197480
LApr 30 · 12:30J. Pozarsky183870D. Tuma331111113
LApr 22 · 19:30J. Pozarsky4611871372D. Tuma528111111113
WApr 6 · 16:30J. Pozarsky331111113D. Tuma217770
J. Pozarsky10
LOct 2 · 20:58M. Vizek2.10101116113J. Pozarsky1.671261491LOct 2 · 19:00J. Pozarsky1.534790M. Vizek2.381111113LOct 2 · 18:00S. Kadavy1.731111113J. Pozarsky2.009880WSep 29 · 20:58T. Janata2.3891250J. Pozarsky1.531114113LSep 29 · 20:00J. Pozarsky1.55111181392T. Janata2.30631115113LSep 29 · 19:30K. Brozhik1.361112812143J. Pozarsky3.008101114122LSep 29 · 18:00J. Pozarsky1.531011871R. Krejci2.3812411113WAug 31 · 21:30J. Pozarsky1.651112113J. Stolfa2.1051060WAug 31 · 20:30J. Stolfa2.00881451J. Pozarsky1.73111112113WAug 31 · 19:30J. Pozarsky2.5091211113J. Hradecky1.501110931
D. Tuma10
LOct 2 · 21:30D. Tuma1.8212881162S. Kadavy1.881011118113WOct 2 · 19:30D. Tuma1.83111110113S. Kadavy1.83791281WOct 2 · 18:30M. Vizek1.67111011872D. Tuma2.10712411113LOct 1 · 17:30D. Tuma1.857740M. Sobisek1.851111113LOct 1 · 16:30M. Sobisek1.8312811113D. Tuma1.831011871WOct 1 · 15:30D. Tuma2.101111113K. Kapras1.676880WOct 1 · 14:30M. Vizek1.676117101D. Tuma2.1011511123LOct 1 · 13:28D. Tuma1.801011871M. Volf1.9112811113WOct 1 · 12:30D. Tuma2.201611113M. Vizek1.6114880WOct 1 · 11:00D. Tuma2.631114113P. Zmuda1.4491260
Upcoming Matches
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D. Tuma
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