TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Antoni Witkowski vs Dawid Michna 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
17151214711411––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:42 and never touched: 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeAntoni Witkowski to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Antoni Witkowski @ 1.50 · Lost
How it is goingAntoni Witkowski above · Dawid Michna below
Set 1 · 17-15
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 91 set 4, 4-11 · our read held Antoni Witkowski at 61.3%
91 points played in total.
H2H Antoni Witkowski 15–6 Dawid Michna Dawid Michna has won 6 of their 21 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Michna beat Witkowski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pick
Sealed 08:42Sent to Pro: Antoni Witkowski @ 1.50 · Lost
61.3%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
clears by 1.3pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Witkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-6 in 21
Witkowski
Wrong
gap of 9 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Witkowski 1861 vs Michna 1914
Michna
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Witkowski 0% vs Michna 80%
Michna
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Witkowski 40% vs Michna 60%
Michna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Witkowski -5 · Michna +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Witkowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michna form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWitkowski 1.666 / Michna 2.10
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Witkowski)+1.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13264261
Witkowski1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite60% won 58 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it84% 38 of 45
Michna2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog54% won 120 of 223
Down 0–1, comes back36% 41 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWitkowski4wins
AwayMichna6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMichna leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWitkowski60%3 of 5
AwayMichna80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Witkowski5Michna5n = 10split evenly
S2Witkowski5Michna5n = 10split evenly
S3Witkowski3Michna7n = 10Michna took 7 of 10
S4Witkowski3Michna4n = 7Michna took 4 of 7
S5Witkowski2Michna2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricWitkowskiMichnaW − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.238.2−1.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWitkowskiMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 390 vs 497 / 92158%54%226 / 390 vs 497 / 921Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WitkowskiWitkowski 1.67/Michna 2.10
Miss
What we said
61.3%
Witkowski · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Antoni Witkowski @ 1.50 · Lost
What happened
1–3
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 9 · 08:05A. Witkowski155370D. Michna331111113
LJun 12 · 10:00A. Witkowski371071191D. Michna4112117113
WJun 12 · 08:10A. Witkowski526131011123D. Michna511111127102
LMar 3 · 13:50A. Witkowski4691181172D. Michna46117116113
WMar 3 · 07:40A. Witkowski4111118113D. Michna33791161
LFeb 2 · 13:50A. Witkowski188370D. Michna331111113
WFeb 2 · 07:40A. Witkowski331111113D. Michna173680
LFeb 1 · 13:00A. Witkowski4411119672D. Michna45391111113
WJan 4 · 08:40A. Witkowski491151111113D. Michna4361151382
LJan 3 · 13:25A. Witkowski371197101D. Michna4061111123
A. Witkowski10
LOct 9 · 08:05A. Witkowski1.505370D. Michna2.501111113LOct 9 · 06:30D. Wederlich2.00118511113A. Witkowski1.7331111952LOct 9 · 05:40P. David1.531111113A. Witkowski2.388880LOct 9 · 04:55A. Witkowski1.5784111182J. Zandecki2.25111198113LOct 9 · 03:45A. Witkowski2.108930M. Jadczyk1.671111113WSep 13 · 07:45A. Witkowski1.5711511113S. Dosz2.25911961WSep 13 · 06:30A. Witkowski1.9181111113A. Dosz1.80117391WSep 13 · 05:15A. Witkowski1.83111011113K. Petas1.83812781WSep 13 · 04:10G. Adamiak2.75115741A. Witkowski1.4071111113LSep 13 · 03:25A. Witkowski1.576121151J. Zandecki2.2511149113
D. Michna10
WOct 9 · 08:05A. Witkowski1.505370D. Michna2.501111113WOct 9 · 07:20J. Zandecki1.7312591152D. Michna2.001011116113WOct 9 · 05:15D. Wederlich1.73116591D. Michna2.0081111113LOct 9 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.911110811113D. Michna1.8061211852WOct 9 · 03:00P. David1.50123991D. Michna2.50101111113LOct 8 · 14:10D. Michna2.1010660D. Wederlich1.671211113LOct 8 · 12:30A. Grela1.83111211113D. Michna1.83914981WOct 8 · 11:40J. Zandecki1.8071191172D. Michna1.91118115113WOct 8 · 10:50D. Michna2.20131112113P. David1.611571051LOct 8 · 09:40D. Michna3.4081181182J. Folwarski1.30114118113
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