TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
David Brichacek vs Premysl Rucky 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1161169119111012
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:12 and never touched: 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Brichacek to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Brichacek above · Premysl Rucky below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 96 set 5, 10-12 · our read held David Brichacek at 64.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H David Brichacek 6–5 Premysl Rucky Premysl Rucky has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:1264.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Brichacek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brichacek 1652 vs Rucky 1544
Brichacek
Wrong
both rated, 108 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brichacek 20% vs Rucky 60%
Rucky
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brichacek 40% vs Rucky 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brichacek -1 · Rucky -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Brichacek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rucky form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrichacek 1.533 / Rucky 2.375
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Brichacek)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13260889
Brichacek1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 103 of 181
Up 2–0, closes it95% 56 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it78% 76 of 97
Rucky2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 7 of 17
Down 0–1, comes back30% 3 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back40% 2 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrichacek6wins
AwayRucky4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBrichacek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrichacek50%2 of 4
AwayRucky33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brichacek4Rucky6n = 10Rucky took 6 of 10
S2Brichacek6Rucky4n = 10Brichacek took 6 of 10
S3Brichacek5Rucky5n = 10split evenly
S4Brichacek5Rucky3n = 8Brichacek took 5 of 8
S5Brichacek3Rucky2n = 5Brichacek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrichacekRuckyB − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.538.0+3.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrichacekRuckyBasisWin rate · lifetime196 / 361 vs 33 / 7054.3%47.1%196 / 361 vs 33 / 70Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BrichacekBrichacek 1.53/Rucky 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64%
Brichacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rucky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 8 · 18:15D. Brichacek50111199102P. Rucky46661111123
WSep 4 · 18:30D. Brichacek4111811113P. Rucky32611781
LAug 7 · 20:43D. Brichacek26411110P. Rucky371113133
WAug 7 · 17:15D. Brichacek51911911113P. Rucky3811411662
LJul 30 · 20:28D. Brichacek368141131P. Rucky4211164113
WJul 30 · 17:30D. Brichacek521011911113P. Rucky4112511672
WJul 17 · 20:58D. Brichacek331111113P. Rucky198380
LJul 17 · 17:30D. Brichacek39111041132P. Rucky52912119113
WJun 25 · 20:38D. Brichacek46412118113P. Rucky45111071162
WJun 25 · 19:30D. Brichacek4181111113P. Rucky28112871
D. Brichacek10
LOct 8 · 19:15D. Brichacek1.57115991J. Jnr2.2591111113LOct 8 · 17:15D. Brichacek1.3331111892Z. Kuksa3.25115311113WOct 4 · 09:15D. Brichacek1.731111123T. Kanka2.0064100LOct 4 · 08:00T. Kanka2.101141211113D. Brichacek1.6771114962LOct 4 · 07:00J. Jnr2.1011118113D. Brichacek1.67661181LOct 4 · 05:30P. Orlowski1.911111113D. Brichacek1.809990WOct 3 · 16:14J. Juppa1.837780D. Brichacek1.831111103LOct 3 · 15:15L. Kolman2.001111113D. Brichacek1.737790WOct 3 · 14:45D. Brichacek1.33111011113J. Juppa3.25912281LOct 3 · 13:45D. Brichacek1.50121181192P. Orlowski2.50149118113
P. Rucky10
LOct 8 · 17:45J. Jnr1.571111113P. Rucky2.258390WSep 14 · 21:08P. Rucky1.5361111123R. Merkl2.381174101LSep 14 · 20:00J. Jnr1.53111113143P. Rucky2.3813411121WSep 14 · 19:00R. Merkl2.2585111192P. Rucky1.57111149113WSep 14 · 17:30S. Kalensky2.631118151P. Rucky1.4481111173LSep 4 · 21:03P. Hala2.1011128113P. Rucky1.675101161LSep 4 · 19:30P. Rucky2.1083111152P. Orlowski1.67111153113LSep 4 · 18:30P. Rucky2.00611781D. Brichacek1.7311811113WSep 4 · 17:30P. Rucky1.611513118113P. Hala2.20131561192WAug 25 · 20:48P. Rucky1.7351114113T. Hanke2.001151281
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