TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Tomas Kanka vs David Brichacek 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1174111214119116
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:57 and never touched: 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Brichacek to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Kanka above · David Brichacek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 96 set 5, 11-6 · our read held David Brichacek at 59.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kanka 3–4 David Brichacek Tomas Kanka has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5759.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Brichacek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kanka 1526 vs Brichacek 1701
Brichacek
Wrong
both rated, 176 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanka 40% vs Brichacek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanka 40% vs Brichacek 60%
Brichacek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanka -3 · Brichacek -2
Kanka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Brichacek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brichacek form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanka 2.10 / Brichacek 1.666
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Brichacek)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13242171
Kanka2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 37 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back21% 13 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Brichacek1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 102 of 177
Up 2–0, closes it95% 55 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it78% 75 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKanka3wins
AwayBrichacek4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderBrichacek leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKanka75%3 of 4
AwayBrichacek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kanka4Brichacek3n = 7Kanka took 4 of 7
S2Kanka4Brichacek3n = 7Kanka took 4 of 7
S3Kanka4Brichacek3n = 7Kanka took 4 of 7
S4Kanka2Brichacek2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricKankaBrichacekK − BBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match37.438.3−0.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKankaBrichacekBasisWin rate · lifetime186 / 391 vs 195 / 35647.6%54.8%186 / 391 vs 195 / 356Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BrichacekKanka 2.10/Brichacek 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59%
Brichacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kanka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 20 · 08:33T. Kanka33911851D. Brichacek3911611113
WSep 20 · 06:00T. Kanka341211113D. Brichacek2610880
WSep 12 · 07:45T. Kanka411117133D. Brichacek35915110
LJun 25 · 18:00T. Kanka187740D. Brichacek331111113
LJun 20 · 06:15T. Kanka4276111172D. Brichacek45111175113
LMay 1 · 17:30T. Kanka501112107102D. Brichacek549101211123
WMar 29 · 10:00T. Kanka4413911113D. Brichacek361111591
T. Kanka10
LOct 4 · 06:30P. Orlowski1.331113113T. Kanka3.2591160LOct 4 · 06:00J. Jnr1.5711114113T. Kanka2.25981181LOct 3 · 09:08Z. Kuksa1.831111811113T. Kanka1.8361311462WOct 3 · 07:30M. Taranko2.63110100T. Kanka1.441112123WOct 3 · 07:00T. Kanka1.671111113J. Botka2.103350WOct 3 · 06:00T. Kanka2.381211113Z. Kuksa1.5310460WSep 28 · 08:48R. Merkl1.91861121T. Kanka1.8011114113LSep 28 · 07:45T. Kanka1.83411281R. Merkl1.83111110113LSep 28 · 06:15P. Orlowski1.441111113T. Kanka2.635790LSep 28 · 05:45Z. Kuksa1.6111811113T. Kanka2.20611761
D. Brichacek10
LOct 4 · 07:00J. Jnr2.1011118113D. Brichacek1.67661181LOct 4 · 05:30P. Orlowski1.911111113D. Brichacek1.809990WOct 3 · 16:14J. Juppa1.837780D. Brichacek1.831111103LOct 3 · 15:15L. Kolman2.001111113D. Brichacek1.737790WOct 3 · 14:45D. Brichacek1.33111011113J. Juppa3.25912281LOct 3 · 13:45D. Brichacek1.50121181192P. Orlowski2.50149118113WOct 2 · 20:43M. Hajek3.006760D. Brichacek1.361111113WOct 2 · 19:45D. Brichacek1.4011811113M. Hajek2.75411471WOct 2 · 18:15L. Kolman1.834101161D. Brichacek1.8311129113WOct 2 · 17:45J. Juppa2.753390D. Brichacek1.401111113
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