TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Tomas Kanka vs Jan Botka 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113113115––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:58 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeTomas Kanka to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Kanka above · Jan Botka below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 44 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Tomas Kanka at 56.6%
44 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kanka 1–0 Jan Botka Jan Botka has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5856.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kanka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kanka 1553 vs Botka 1422
Kanka
Correct
both rated, 131 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanka 40% vs Botka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanka 60% vs Botka 40%
Kanka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanka +2 · Botka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Kanka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kanka form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanka 1.666 / Botka 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Kanka)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234402
Kanka1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 37 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it87% 13 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it75% 24 of 32
Botka2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 16 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back27% 7 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKanka1wins
AwayBotka0wins
Kanka leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKankaBotkaK − BBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.011.0+22.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKankaBotkaBasisWin rate · lifetime189 / 392 vs 48 / 11348.2%42.5%189 / 392 vs 48 / 113Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KankaKanka 1.67/Botka 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Kanka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kanka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 3 · 07:00T. Kanka331111113J. Botka113350
T. Kanka10
WOct 3 · 07:30M. Taranko2.63110100T. Kanka1.441112123WOct 3 · 06:00T. Kanka2.381211113Z. Kuksa1.5310460WSep 28 · 08:48R. Merkl1.91861121T. Kanka1.8011114113LSep 28 · 07:45T. Kanka1.83411281R. Merkl1.83111110113LSep 28 · 06:15P. Orlowski1.441111113T. Kanka2.635790LSep 28 · 05:45Z. Kuksa1.6111811113T. Kanka2.20611761WSep 26 · 08:44Z. Kuksa1.50611111152T. Kanka2.50115135113WSep 26 · 07:15T. Kanka1.5011611113M. Taranko2.50611421LSep 26 · 06:15T. Kanka2.38711513102Z. Kuksa1.531171111123WSep 26 · 05:15T. Kanka1.83561111113R. Merkl1.8311116782
J. Botka10
WOct 3 · 05:30M. Taranko1.675790J. Botka2.101111113LSep 23 · 20:28J. Tichy1.501211113J. Botka2.5010550LSep 23 · 19:30J. Botka2.25111110862J. Tichy1.57891211113WSep 23 · 18:30J. Botka2.7591111113J. Juppa1.40117991LSep 23 · 17:30J. Botka1.83119781J. Marhol1.8391111113LSep 19 · 08:14M. Soukup1.3611811113J. Botka3.00711951LSep 19 · 07:15J. Botka2.3887111152M. Soukup1.53111193113WSep 19 · 06:15J. Botka3.2541111113Z. Kuksa1.33115481WSep 19 · 05:15J. Botka2.20111112113M. Taranko1.61651441LSep 18 · 20:44J. Botka2.007811101J. Snr1.7311114123
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