TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mikhail Taranko vs Jan Botka 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511711911––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:23 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeMikhail Taranko to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMikhail Taranko above · Jan Botka below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Mikhail Taranko at 55.8%
54 points played in total.
H2H Mikhail Taranko 2–2 Jan Botka Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:2355.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Taranko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Taranko 1487 vs Botka 1416
Taranko
Wrong
both rated, 72 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Taranko 60% vs Botka 20%
Taranko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Taranko 40% vs Botka 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Taranko +1 · Botka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Taranko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Botka form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTaranko 1.666 / Botka 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Taranko)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234679
Taranko1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 26) · back after a break
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 17 of 29
Up 2–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it77% 10 of 13
Botka2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 9 days ago (Sep 23) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 16 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back27% 7 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeTaranko2wins
AwayBotka2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTarankon = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayBotka50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Taranko0Botka4n = 4Botka took 4 of 4
S2Taranko1Botka3n = 4Botka took 3 of 4
S3Taranko3Botka1n = 4Taranko took 3 of 4
S4Taranko2Botka2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricTarankoBotkaT − BBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match37.847.0−9.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTarankoBotkaBasisWin rate · lifetime75 / 160 vs 47 / 11146.9%42.3%75 / 160 vs 47 / 111Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TarankoTaranko 1.67/Botka 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Taranko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Botka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 19 · 05:15M. Taranko29651441J. Botka45111112113
WAug 8 · 06:15M. Taranko461111112113J. Botka48131191052
WAug 1 · 08:29M. Taranko50481611113J. Botka52111114972
LAug 1 · 05:45M. Taranko26912321J. Botka43111011113
M. Taranko10
LOct 3 · 06:30M. Taranko1.8384100Z. Kuksa1.831111123WSep 26 · 08:14R. Merkl1.8066111142M. Taranko1.91111178113LSep 26 · 07:15T. Kanka1.5011611113M. Taranko2.50611421WSep 26 · 06:45M. Taranko1.8011115113R. Merkl1.91481161LSep 26 · 05:45M. Taranko1.67571181Z. Kuksa2.1011119113WSep 19 · 08:43M. Taranko2.001111113Z. Kuksa1.739850LSep 19 · 07:45Z. Kuksa2.001113113M. Taranko1.7391190LSep 19 · 06:45M. Soukup1.801111113M. Taranko1.916880LSep 19 · 05:15J. Botka2.20111112113M. Taranko1.61651441LSep 12 · 08:54D. Brichacek1.4081111113M. Taranko2.75119961
J. Botka10
LSep 23 · 20:28J. Tichy1.501211113J. Botka2.5010550LSep 23 · 19:30J. Botka2.25111110862J. Tichy1.57891211113WSep 23 · 18:30J. Botka2.7591111113J. Juppa1.40117991LSep 23 · 17:30J. Botka1.83119781J. Marhol1.8391111113LSep 19 · 08:14M. Soukup1.3611811113J. Botka3.00711951LSep 19 · 07:15J. Botka2.3887111152M. Soukup1.53111193113WSep 19 · 06:15J. Botka3.2541111113Z. Kuksa1.33115481WSep 19 · 05:15J. Botka2.20111112113M. Taranko1.61651441LSep 18 · 20:44J. Botka2.007811101J. Snr1.7311114123LSep 18 · 20:00J. Botka2.3811181692F. Kubos1.531181114113
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