TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jan Botka vs Jan Marhol 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Jan Botka
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119911711811––
Jan Marhol
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Marhol to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Botka above · Jan Marhol below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 77 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Jan Marhol at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jan Botka 2–2 Jan Marhol Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:18What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Marhol
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Botka 1434 vs Marhol 1456
Marhol
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Botka 40% vs Marhol 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Botka 40% vs Marhol 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Botka -2 · Marhol -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Botka) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marhol form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBotka 1.83 / Marhol 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Botka)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13180331
Botka1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 19)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Marhol1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 10 days ago (Sep 13) · back after a break
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeBotka2wins
AwayMarhol2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBotka66.7%2 of 3
AwayMarholn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Botka3Marhol1n = 4Botka took 3 of 4
S2Botka2Marhol2n = 4split evenly
S3Botka1Marhol3n = 4Marhol took 3 of 4
S4Botka3Marhol1n = 4Botka took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricBotkaMarholB − MBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match39.839.0+0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBotkaMarholBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 107 vs 125 / 24643%50.8%46 / 107 vs 125 / 246Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BotkaBotka 1.83/Marhol 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Botka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Marhol won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WMay 24 · 20:58J. Botka4411611163J. Marhol336112141
LMay 24 · 19:00J. Botka44101141182J. Marhol48126118113
WMar 7 · 14:04J. Botka3911116113J. Marhol34771191
LMar 7 · 11:00J. Botka321141071J. Marhol4171112113
J. Botka10
WSep 23 · 18:30J. Botka2.7591111113J. Juppa1.40117991LSep 19 · 08:14M. Soukup1.3611811113J. Botka3.00711951LSep 19 · 07:15J. Botka2.3887111152M. Soukup1.53111193113WSep 19 · 06:15J. Botka3.2541111113Z. Kuksa1.33115481WSep 19 · 05:15J. Botka2.20111112113M. Taranko1.61651441LSep 18 · 20:44J. Botka2.007811101J. Snr1.7311114123LSep 18 · 20:00J. Botka2.3811181692F. Kubos1.531181114113LSep 18 · 18:30J. Snr1.7311511113J. Botka2.00811871WSep 18 · 18:00L. Hendrych1.50810100J. Botka2.501112123LSep 11 · 20:24K. Jirousek2.50111111113J. Botka1.50613491
J. Marhol10
LSep 13 · 11:30L. Hendrych1.7391111113J. Marhol2.00117771WSep 13 · 11:00J. Marhol2.00118411113F. Kubos1.7361111572WSep 13 · 10:00J. Marhol2.6391111113J. Juppa1.44116931LSep 12 · 16:29J. Hanacek2.0091113113J. Marhol1.731181181LSep 12 · 14:30J. Marhol1.50115971J. Hanacek2.506111183LSep 12 · 13:30J. Marhol2.007111251F. Kubos1.73111310103WSep 3 · 12:23J. Hanacek2.201011110J. Marhol1.611213133LSep 3 · 11:15J. Marhol2.00812521M. Vana1.73111011113WSep 3 · 10:15J. Marhol1.6110121112143O. Plyska2.201214910122LSep 3 · 09:15J. Marhol1.57121211982J. Hanacek2.251014711113
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