TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Leon Kolman vs David Brichacek 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4111012119611––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:00 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Brichacek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLeon Kolman above · David Brichacek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 74 set 4, 6-11 · our read held David Brichacek at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Leon Kolman 7–7 David Brichacek Dead even across their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 7–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:0054.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Brichacek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-7 in 14
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolman 1571 vs Brichacek 1726
Brichacek
Correct
both rated, 155 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolman 40% vs Brichacek 80%
Brichacek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolman 50% vs Brichacek 80%
Brichacek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolman -2 · Brichacek +4
Brichacek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Brichacek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brichacek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolman 1.833 / Brichacek 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Brichacek)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13229313
Kolman1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Brichacek1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolman7wins
AwayBrichacek3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKolman leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolman66.7%6 of 9
AwayBrichacekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolman9Brichacek1n = 10Kolman took 9 of 10
S2Kolman3Brichacek7n = 10Brichacek took 7 of 10
S3Kolman7Brichacek3n = 10Kolman took 7 of 10
S4Kolman4Brichacek5n = 9Brichacek took 5 of 9
S5Kolman2Brichacek1n = 3Kolman took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolmanBrichacekK − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match41.438.4+3.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolmanBrichacekBasisWin rate · lifetime365 / 699 vs 190 / 34752.2%54.8%365 / 699 vs 190 / 347Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BrichacekKolman 1.83/Brichacek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Brichacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Brichacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 20 · 07:30L. Kolman44113514113D. Brichacek48911111252
LAug 30 · 17:30L. Kolman50116119132D. Brichacek51711711153
LAug 21 · 19:45L. Kolman411577121D. Brichacek49131111143
WAug 15 · 19:45L. Kolman3811412113D. Brichacek333111091
WJul 25 · 07:45L. Kolman331111113D. Brichacek207760
WJul 12 · 17:30L. Kolman3511211113D. Brichacek28611291
WJul 7 · 08:00L. Kolman47111186113D. Brichacek4175111172
WJun 27 · 19:00L. Kolman4311912113D. Brichacek379111071
L. Kolman10
LOct 2 · 17:15L. Kolman1.83118951M. Hajek1.8381111113LOct 1 · 12:43L. Kolman1.8097111192J. Simek1.91111166113WOct 1 · 11:45R. Merkl2.205111181L. Kolman1.6111613113WOct 1 · 10:45M. Svitac1.67781251L. Kolman2.10111110113LOct 1 · 09:15J. Simek1.9111101213113L. Kolman1.80612101552WSep 27 · 20:34L. Kolman1.6711141113A. Pavlik2.107121151LSep 27 · 20:00L. Kolman1.5758111192R. Merkl2.25111118113WSep 27 · 18:30F. Kubos2.75741171L. Kolman1.4011115113LSep 27 · 18:00A. Pavlik2.1011118113L. Kolman1.67491171WSep 27 · 08:28L. Kolman2.201711712113P. Orlowski1.611513111072
D. Brichacek10
WOct 2 · 17:45J. Juppa2.753390D. Brichacek1.401111113WSep 29 · 20:43M. Hajek2.505570D. Brichacek1.501111113WSep 29 · 19:45D. Brichacek1.671111113M. Hajek2.108210WSep 29 · 18:15M. Vana1.6710101141D. Brichacek2.1012123113LSep 29 · 17:45D. Marasek1.501111113D. Brichacek2.504690WSep 26 · 16:26D. Brichacek1.83111193J. Simek1.838380WSep 26 · 15:15J. Simek2.2599111192D. Brichacek1.57111187103WSep 26 · 14:45D. Brichacek1.91611112113R. Merkl1.8011641132WSep 26 · 13:45D. Brichacek1.9181161143L. Kolman1.8011611632LSep 23 · 21:03P. Hala1.9121212113D. Brichacek1.8011101061
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