TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Leon Kolman vs Miroslav Hajek 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118811911511––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:10 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Hajek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLeon Kolman above · Miroslav Hajek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 74 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Miroslav Hajek at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Leon Kolman 13–13 Miroslav Hajek Dead even across their 26 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:1054.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Hajek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-13 in 26
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolman 1582 vs Hajek 1618
Hajek
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolman 60% vs Hajek 80%
Hajek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolman 50% vs Hajek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolman -1 · Hajek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hajek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hajek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolman 1.833 / Hajek 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hajek)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13229357
Kolman1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Hajek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolman6wins
AwayHajek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKolman leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolman71.4%5 of 7
AwayHajek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolman7Hajek3n = 10Kolman took 7 of 10
S2Kolman6Hajek4n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10
S3Kolman6Hajek3n = 9Kolman took 6 of 9
S4Kolman2Hajek6n = 8Hajek took 6 of 8
S5Kolman2Hajek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolmanHajekK − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.341.9+0.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolmanHajekBasisWin rate · lifetime365 / 698 vs 358 / 67952.3%52.7%365 / 698 vs 358 / 679Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.739.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HajekKolman 1.83/Hajek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hajek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hajek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 27 · 06:00L. Kolman33118771M. Hajek4291111113
LSep 20 · 17:00L. Kolman4311913192M. Hajek517111111113
WSep 20 · 16:00L. Kolman351111133M. Hajek2696110
LSep 18 · 16:51L. Kolman34611891M. Hajek3811511113
WSep 18 · 15:45L. Kolman485111110113M. Hajek4211751272
WSep 10 · 11:45L. Kolman4416611113M. Hajek411411881
WSep 6 · 20:53L. Kolman4211119113M. Hajek34881171
LAug 30 · 20:00L. Kolman501212111142M. Hajek551410713113
WAug 26 · 20:44L. Kolman521181110123M. Hajek48711812102
L. Kolman10
LOct 2 · 18:15L. Kolman1.834101161D. Brichacek1.8311129113LOct 1 · 12:43L. Kolman1.8097111192J. Simek1.91111166113WOct 1 · 11:45R. Merkl2.205111181L. Kolman1.6111613113WOct 1 · 10:45M. Svitac1.67781251L. Kolman2.10111110113LOct 1 · 09:15J. Simek1.9111101213113L. Kolman1.80612101552WSep 27 · 20:34L. Kolman1.6711141113A. Pavlik2.107121151LSep 27 · 20:00L. Kolman1.5758111192R. Merkl2.25111118113WSep 27 · 18:30F. Kubos2.75741171L. Kolman1.4011115113LSep 27 · 18:00A. Pavlik2.1011118113L. Kolman1.67491171WSep 27 · 08:28L. Kolman2.201711712113P. Orlowski1.611513111072
M. Hajek10
LOct 2 · 12:49M. Svitac2.25111211113M. Hajek1.57614651WOct 2 · 11:45M. Hajek1.611111133M. Svitac2.2089110WOct 2 · 10:15V. Lopata2.38741161M. Hajek1.5311119113WOct 2 · 09:45L. Smazik2.009101151M. Hajek1.7311129113WOct 1 · 20:43J. Jnr1.8311611472M. Hajek1.83611611113LOct 1 · 19:45M. Hajek1.5010690J. Jnr2.501211113LOct 1 · 18:15L. Stoces2.201112123M. Hajek1.61310100WOct 1 · 17:45A. Pavlik2.5010111051M. Hajek1.5012812113LSep 29 · 20:43M. Hajek2.505570D. Brichacek1.501111113LSep 29 · 19:45D. Brichacek1.671111113M. Hajek2.108210
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