TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jakub Simek vs Leon Kolman 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116101212101315115
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:14 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Simek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Simek above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 13-15
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 105 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Jakub Simek at 54.0%
105 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Simek 8–8 Leon Kolman Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:1454.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kolman
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simek 1555 vs Kolman 1582
Kolman
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simek 40% vs Kolman 60%
Kolman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simek 50% vs Kolman 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Simek +1 · Kolman +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Simek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Simek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimek 1.909 / Kolman 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Simek)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13223812
Simek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 9 of 22
Down 0–1, comes back36% 5 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Kolman1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 27)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 96 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it92% 45 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it69% 74 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSimek5wins
AwayKolman5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimek60%3 of 5
AwayKolman60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simek5Kolman5n = 10split evenly
S2Simek4Kolman6n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10
S3Simek6Kolman4n = 10Simek took 6 of 10
S4Simek6Kolman3n = 9Simek took 6 of 9
S5Simek0Kolman3n = 3Kolman took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSimekKolmanS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.239.0+1.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimekKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime85 / 169 vs 363 / 69450.3%52.3%85 / 169 vs 363 / 694Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SimekSimek 1.91/Kolman 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Simek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Simek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 13 · 12:14J. Simek41113511112L. Kolman46711114133
LAug 13 · 09:15J. Simek371111781L. Kolman4113611113
WMar 6 · 13:44J. Simek4381212113L. Kolman4011101091
WMar 6 · 12:45J. Simek4391111123L. Kolman341158101
WFeb 28 · 10:30J. Simek4211911113L. Kolman32711591
WFeb 20 · 17:45J. Simek4212811113L. Kolman331011751
LFeb 20 · 15:15J. Simek227870L. Kolman331111113
LFeb 6 · 22:28J. Simek4889111192L. Kolman41111126113
LFeb 6 · 19:15J. Simek44115115122L. Kolman51911611143
J. Simek10
LOct 1 · 10:15J. Simek1.44611118142R. Merkl2.63119911163WSep 30 · 13:08L. Smazik1.67111111101J. Simek2.1013138123LSep 30 · 11:30J. Simek1.73914121182P. Provaznik2.001112149113LSep 30 · 10:30J. Simek2.001161011112L. Smazik1.73711129133WSep 30 · 09:30J. Simek1.801111113T. Hrstka1.917670LSep 26 · 16:26D. Brichacek1.83111193J. Simek1.838380LSep 26 · 15:15J. Simek2.2599111192D. Brichacek1.57111187103WSep 26 · 14:15J. Simek1.911212910103L. Kolman1.801010111292WSep 26 · 13:15J. Simek1.50111183R. Merkl2.509950WSep 18 · 12:19J. Simek2.1011118113T. Hucko1.67651171
L. Kolman10
WSep 27 · 20:34L. Kolman1.6711141113A. Pavlik2.107121151LSep 27 · 20:00L. Kolman1.5758111192R. Merkl2.25111118113WSep 27 · 18:30F. Kubos2.75741171L. Kolman1.4011115113LSep 27 · 18:00A. Pavlik2.1011118113L. Kolman1.67491171WSep 27 · 08:28L. Kolman2.201711712113P. Orlowski1.611513111072LSep 27 · 08:00L. Kolman1.9187100L. Provaznik1.801111123LSep 27 · 06:30P. Orlowski1.7311911113L. Kolman2.00811661LSep 27 · 06:00M. Hajek1.9191111113L. Kolman1.80118771LSep 26 · 16:55R. Merkl1.571111102L. Kolman2.2569100LSep 26 · 14:15J. Simek1.911212910103L. Kolman1.801010111292
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