TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jachym Juppa vs David Brichacek 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311311911––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:39 and never touched: 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeDavid Brichacek to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJachym Juppa above · David Brichacek below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 48 set 3, 9-11 · our read held David Brichacek at 70.7%
48 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Juppa 4–14 David Brichacek Jachym Juppa has won 4 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:3970.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 0.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Brichacek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-14 in 18
Brichacek
Correct
gap of 10 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Juppa 1601 vs Brichacek 1717
Brichacek
Correct
both rated, 116 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Juppa 80% vs Brichacek 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Juppa 70% vs Brichacek 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Juppa +1 · Brichacek +3
Brichacek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Brichacek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Juppa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJuppa 2.75 / Brichacek 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Brichacek)-0.7pp
Setka Cup · #13228975
Juppa2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 29)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog51% won 78 of 153
Down 0–1, comes back33% 26 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 40
Brichacek1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 29)
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 100 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it95% 54 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it77% 72 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJuppa3wins
AwayBrichacek7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBrichacek leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJuppa50%2 of 4
AwayBrichacek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Juppa4Brichacek6n = 10Brichacek took 6 of 10
S2Juppa4Brichacek6n = 10Brichacek took 6 of 10
S3Juppa4Brichacek6n = 10Brichacek took 6 of 10
S4Juppa3Brichacek3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJuppaBrichacekJ − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.837.1−5.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJuppaBrichacekBasisWin rate · lifetime445 / 844 vs 189 / 34652.7%54.6%445 / 844 vs 189 / 346Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BrichacekJuppa 2.75/Brichacek 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Brichacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Brichacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 5 · 20:00J. Juppa125250D. Brichacek331111113
WAug 23 · 14:00J. Juppa4281112113D. Brichacek351181061
LAug 12 · 19:45J. Juppa198560D. Brichacek331111113
WAug 2 · 13:45J. Juppa4213115133D. Brichacek3611311111
LAug 1 · 10:00J. Juppa34871181D. Brichacek3911116113
LJul 7 · 08:33J. Juppa33511891D. Brichacek4211911113
WJul 7 · 05:30J. Juppa361213113D. Brichacek30101190
LJun 21 · 06:15J. Juppa4011651172D. Brichacek48611119113
LJun 14 · 10:30J. Juppa28116741D. Brichacek3851111113
J. Juppa10
WSep 29 · 20:58J. Juppa1.5781111113T. Bertho2.25112771LSep 29 · 20:00T. Bertho2.38111011113J. Juppa1.53512771WSep 29 · 19:00S. Kalensky2.381175101J. Juppa1.5381111123WSep 29 · 17:30J. Gruber1.50681191J. Juppa2.5011116113WSep 28 · 12:28J. Juppa1.83411119123T. Hybl1.83116611102LSep 28 · 12:00M. Hajek1.3311911113J. Juppa3.25911681LSep 28 · 11:00L. Provaznik1.4011119113J. Juppa2.75981151WSep 28 · 09:30T. Hybl1.57641191J. Juppa2.2511118113WSep 25 · 20:13J. Juppa1.671111113L. Krasl2.109780WSep 25 · 19:15L. Krasl2.10471191J. Juppa1.6711116113
D. Brichacek10
WOct 2 · 18:15L. Kolman1.834101161D. Brichacek1.8311129113WSep 29 · 20:43M. Hajek2.505570D. Brichacek1.501111113WSep 29 · 19:45D. Brichacek1.671111113M. Hajek2.108210WSep 29 · 18:15M. Vana1.6710101141D. Brichacek2.1012123113LSep 29 · 17:45D. Marasek1.501111113D. Brichacek2.504690WSep 26 · 16:26D. Brichacek1.83111193J. Simek1.838380WSep 26 · 15:15J. Simek2.2599111192D. Brichacek1.57111187103WSep 26 · 14:45D. Brichacek1.91611112113R. Merkl1.8011641132WSep 26 · 13:45D. Brichacek1.9181161143L. Kolman1.8011611632LSep 23 · 21:03P. Hala1.9121212113D. Brichacek1.8011101061
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