TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
David Brichacek vs Petr Orlowski 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1214119811118911
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:02 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeDavid Brichacek to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Brichacek above · Petr Orlowski below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 104 set 5, 9-11 · our read held David Brichacek at 54.9%
104 points played in total.
H2H David Brichacek 9–10 Petr Orlowski David Brichacek has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:0254.9%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 11.8pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Brichacek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-10 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brichacek 1750 vs Orlowski 1684
Brichacek
Wrong
both rated, 66 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brichacek 100% vs Orlowski 60%
Brichacek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brichacek 90% vs Orlowski 60%
Brichacek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brichacek +7 · Orlowski -1
Brichacek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Brichacek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Orlowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrichacek 1.50 / Orlowski 2.50
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Brichacek)-11.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234429
Brichacek1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite59% won 103 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it95% 56 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it78% 75 of 96
Orlowski2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog55% won 42 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back36% 14 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back16% 3 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrichacek4wins
AwayOrlowski6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOrlowski leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrichacek75%3 of 4
AwayOrlowski83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brichacek4Orlowski6n = 10Orlowski took 6 of 10
S2Brichacek6Orlowski4n = 10Brichacek took 6 of 10
S3Brichacek6Orlowski4n = 10Brichacek took 6 of 10
S4Brichacek2Orlowski5n = 7Orlowski took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrichacekOrlowskiB − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.636.5−2.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrichacekOrlowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime193 / 350 vs 198 / 36455.1%54.4%193 / 350 vs 198 / 364Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.340.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BrichacekBrichacek 1.50/Orlowski 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Brichacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Orlowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 18:15D. Brichacek33811771P. Orlowski3811511113
LSep 20 · 07:00D. Brichacek25211841P. Orlowski3811511113
WSep 19 · 09:09D. Brichacek331111113P. Orlowski259880
LSep 19 · 07:00D. Brichacek28451181P. Orlowski3811115113
WSep 17 · 20:44D. Brichacek331111113P. Orlowski249960
LSep 17 · 17:15D. Brichacek4711771572P. Orlowski548111113113
WSep 7 · 20:59D. Brichacek341111123P. Orlowski2275100
LSep 7 · 17:30D. Brichacek30571261P. Orlowski43111110113
WSep 4 · 21:33D. Brichacek41611211113P. Orlowski4411811592
LSep 4 · 18:00D. Brichacek32871161P. Orlowski3911116113
D. Brichacek10
WOct 3 · 14:45D. Brichacek1.33111011113J. Juppa3.25912281WOct 2 · 20:43M. Hajek3.006760D. Brichacek1.361111113WOct 2 · 19:45D. Brichacek1.4011811113M. Hajek2.75411471WOct 2 · 18:15L. Kolman1.834101161D. Brichacek1.8311129113WOct 2 · 17:45J. Juppa2.753390D. Brichacek1.401111113WSep 29 · 20:43M. Hajek2.505570D. Brichacek1.501111113WSep 29 · 19:45D. Brichacek1.671111113M. Hajek2.108210WSep 29 · 18:15M. Vana1.6710101141D. Brichacek2.1012123113LSep 29 · 17:45D. Marasek1.501111113D. Brichacek2.504690WSep 26 · 16:26D. Brichacek1.83111193J. Simek1.838380
P. Orlowski10
WOct 3 · 14:15L. Kolman2.1010270P. Orlowski1.671211103LSep 28 · 08:18Z. Kuksa2.20581111113P. Orlowski1.6111115582WSep 28 · 07:15P. Orlowski1.916111011113Z. Kuksa1.8011912892WSep 28 · 06:15P. Orlowski1.441111113T. Kanka2.635790WSep 28 · 05:15P. Orlowski1.73111186113R. Merkl2.0058111182LSep 27 · 08:28L. Kolman2.201711712113P. Orlowski1.611513111072LSep 27 · 07:30P. Orlowski1.738450M. Hajek2.001111113WSep 27 · 06:30P. Orlowski1.7311911113L. Kolman2.00811661LSep 27 · 05:30P. Orlowski1.53491191L. Provaznik2.3811113113WSep 23 · 20:33J. Jnr1.739111111102P. Orlowski2.00119139123
Upcoming Matches
D. Brichacek
Nothing scheduled
P. Orlowski
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.