TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Leon Kolman vs Petr Orlowski 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012211710––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:50 and never touched: 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timePetr Orlowski to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Petr Orlowski @ 1.67 · Won
How it is goingLeon Kolman above · Petr Orlowski below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 7-10
Point 52 set 3, 7-10 · our read held Petr Orlowski at 59.4%
52 points played in total.
H2H Leon Kolman 7–11 Petr Orlowski Leon Kolman has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:5059.4%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 0.6pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Orlowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-11 in 18
Orlowski
Correct
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolman 1591 vs Orlowski 1684
Orlowski
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolman 40% vs Orlowski 60%
Orlowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolman 50% vs Orlowski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolman +2 · Orlowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Orlowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolman 2.10 / Orlowski 1.666
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Orlowski)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13234749
Kolman2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 65 of 150
Down 0–1, comes back21% 15 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Orlowski1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 61 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it78% 46 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolman5wins
AwayOrlowski5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolman71.4%5 of 7
AwayOrlowski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolman7Orlowski3n = 10Kolman took 7 of 10
S2Kolman5Orlowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Kolman4Orlowski6n = 10Orlowski took 6 of 10
S4Kolman2Orlowski8n = 10Orlowski took 8 of 10
S5Kolman4Orlowski2n = 6Kolman took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolmanOrlowskiK − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.545.5−4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolmanOrlowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime367 / 702 vs 198 / 36452.3%54.4%367 / 702 vs 198 / 364Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.740.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OrlowskiKolman 2.10/Orlowski 1.67
Hit
What we said
59.4%
Orlowski · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Petr Orlowski @ 1.67 · Won
What happened
0–3
Orlowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 27 · 08:28L. Kolman581711712113P. Orlowski561513111072
LSep 27 · 06:30L. Kolman31811661P. Orlowski4211911113
LSep 20 · 09:03L. Kolman491151110122P. Orlowski53711912143
LSep 20 · 05:30L. Kolman32413691P. Orlowski44111111113
WAug 22 · 05:30L. Kolman4011711113P. Orlowski33411991
WJul 19 · 15:30L. Kolman52118146133P. Orlowski538111211112
LJun 13 · 05:15L. Kolman3711116452P. Orlowski48691111113
LApr 11 · 19:15L. Kolman26341181P. Orlowski3811115113
WApr 7 · 18:00L. Kolman45121165113P. Orlowski47107111182
WApr 3 · 08:48L. Kolman45111139113P. Orlowski4178111142
L. Kolman10
WOct 3 · 15:15L. Kolman2.001111113D. Brichacek1.737790WOct 3 · 13:15L. Kolman1.831111109113J. Juppa1.8387121142WOct 2 · 19:15L. Kolman1.80911119113J. Juppa1.9111451182LOct 2 · 18:15L. Kolman1.834101161D. Brichacek1.8311129113LOct 2 · 17:15L. Kolman1.83118951M. Hajek1.8381111113LOct 1 · 12:43L. Kolman1.8097111192J. Simek1.91111166113WOct 1 · 11:45R. Merkl2.205111181L. Kolman1.6111613113WOct 1 · 10:45M. Svitac1.67781251L. Kolman2.10111110113LOct 1 · 09:15J. Simek1.9111101213113L. Kolman1.80612101552WSep 27 · 20:34L. Kolman1.6711141113A. Pavlik2.107121151
P. Orlowski10
WOct 3 · 15:45P. Orlowski1.6711111053J. Juppa2.10341211WOct 3 · 13:45D. Brichacek1.50121181192P. Orlowski2.50149118113LSep 28 · 08:18Z. Kuksa2.20581111113P. Orlowski1.6111115582WSep 28 · 07:15P. Orlowski1.916111011113Z. Kuksa1.8011912892WSep 28 · 06:15P. Orlowski1.441111113T. Kanka2.635790WSep 28 · 05:15P. Orlowski1.73111186113R. Merkl2.0058111182LSep 27 · 08:28L. Kolman2.201711712113P. Orlowski1.611513111072LSep 27 · 07:30P. Orlowski1.738450M. Hajek2.001111113WSep 27 · 06:30P. Orlowski1.7311911113L. Kolman2.00811661LSep 27 · 05:30P. Orlowski1.53491191L. Provaznik2.3811113113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.