TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Leon Kolman vs David Brichacek 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117119––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:10 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeDavid Brichacek to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLeon Kolman above · David Brichacek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 · our read held David Brichacek at 56.5%
56 points played in total.
H2H Leon Kolman 7–8 David Brichacek Leon Kolman has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:1056.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Brichacek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolman 1581 vs Brichacek 1744
Brichacek
Wrong
both rated, 164 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolman 40% vs Brichacek 80%
Brichacek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolman 50% vs Brichacek 80%
Brichacek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolman -1 · Brichacek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Brichacek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brichacek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolman 2.00 / Brichacek 1.727
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Brichacek)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234744
Kolman2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 65 of 150
Down 0–1, comes back21% 15 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Brichacek1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 103 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it95% 56 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it78% 75 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolman6wins
AwayBrichacek4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKolman leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolman62.5%5 of 8
AwayBrichacekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolman8Brichacek2n = 10Kolman took 8 of 10
S2Kolman3Brichacek7n = 10Brichacek took 7 of 10
S3Kolman7Brichacek3n = 10Kolman took 7 of 10
S4Kolman3Brichacek6n = 9Brichacek took 6 of 9
S5Kolman2Brichacek1n = 3Kolman took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolmanBrichacekK − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.939.1+0.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolmanBrichacekBasisWin rate · lifetime367 / 703 vs 194 / 35252.2%55.1%367 / 703 vs 194 / 352Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BrichacekKolman 2.00/Brichacek 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Brichacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LOct 2 · 18:15L. Kolman314101161D. Brichacek4311129113
WSep 20 · 07:30L. Kolman44113514113D. Brichacek48911111252
LAug 30 · 17:30L. Kolman50116119132D. Brichacek51711711153
LAug 21 · 19:45L. Kolman411577121D. Brichacek49131111143
WAug 15 · 19:45L. Kolman3811412113D. Brichacek333111091
WJul 25 · 07:45L. Kolman331111113D. Brichacek207760
WJul 12 · 17:30L. Kolman3511211113D. Brichacek28611291
WJul 7 · 08:00L. Kolman47111186113D. Brichacek4175111172
L. Kolman10
LOct 3 · 14:15L. Kolman2.1010270P. Orlowski1.671211103WOct 3 · 13:15L. Kolman1.831111109113J. Juppa1.8387121142WOct 2 · 19:15L. Kolman1.80911119113J. Juppa1.9111451182LOct 2 · 18:15L. Kolman1.834101161D. Brichacek1.8311129113LOct 2 · 17:15L. Kolman1.83118951M. Hajek1.8381111113LOct 1 · 12:43L. Kolman1.8097111192J. Simek1.91111166113WOct 1 · 11:45R. Merkl2.205111181L. Kolman1.6111613113WOct 1 · 10:45M. Svitac1.67781251L. Kolman2.10111110113LOct 1 · 09:15J. Simek1.9111101213113L. Kolman1.80612101552WSep 27 · 20:34L. Kolman1.6711141113A. Pavlik2.107121151
D. Brichacek10
WOct 3 · 16:14J. Juppa1.837780D. Brichacek1.831111103WOct 3 · 14:45D. Brichacek1.33111011113J. Juppa3.25912281LOct 3 · 13:45D. Brichacek1.50121181192P. Orlowski2.50149118113WOct 2 · 20:43M. Hajek3.006760D. Brichacek1.361111113WOct 2 · 19:45D. Brichacek1.4011811113M. Hajek2.75411471WOct 2 · 18:15L. Kolman1.834101161D. Brichacek1.8311129113WOct 2 · 17:45J. Juppa2.753390D. Brichacek1.401111113WSep 29 · 20:43M. Hajek2.505570D. Brichacek1.501111113WSep 29 · 19:45D. Brichacek1.671111113M. Hajek2.108210WSep 29 · 18:15M. Vana1.6710101141D. Brichacek2.1012123113
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