TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Petr Orlowski vs Jachym Juppa 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1131141012115––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:32 and never touched: 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timePetr Orlowski to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Petr Orlowski @ 1.67 · Won
How it is goingPetr Orlowski above · Jachym Juppa below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 5-1
Point 57 set 4, 5-1 · our read held Petr Orlowski at 58.6%
57 points drawn · the score is 10 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Petr Orlowski 9–10 Jachym Juppa Petr Orlowski has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 14:3258.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Orlowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-10 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Orlowski 1707 vs Juppa 1570
Orlowski
Correct
both rated, 137 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Orlowski 80% vs Juppa 20%
Orlowski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Orlowski 60% vs Juppa 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Orlowski +2 · Juppa -3
Juppa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Orlowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Juppa form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOrlowski 1.666 / Juppa 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Orlowski)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13235140
Orlowski1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 61 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it78% 46 of 59
Juppa2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog51% won 77 of 150
Down 0–1, comes back32% 24 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOrlowski4wins
AwayJuppa6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderJuppa leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOrlowski80%4 of 5
AwayJuppa100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Orlowski5Juppa5n = 10split evenly
S2Orlowski9Juppa1n = 10Orlowski took 9 of 10
S3Orlowski3Juppa7n = 10Juppa took 7 of 10
S4Orlowski2Juppa6n = 8Juppa took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOrlowskiJuppaO − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.235.5+3.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOrlowskiJuppaBasisWin rate · lifetime200 / 366 vs 440 / 83754.6%52.6%200 / 366 vs 440 / 837Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.738.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OrlowskiOrlowski 1.67/Juppa 2.10
Hit
What we said
58.6%
Orlowski · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Petr Orlowski @ 1.67 · Won
What happened
3–1
Orlowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 9 · 19:45P. Orlowski411211991J. Juppa4214611113
WJun 13 · 08:13P. Orlowski4111118113J. Juppa25651131
WJun 13 · 06:45P. Orlowski331111113J. Juppa209380
WJun 7 · 07:45P. Orlowski331111113J. Juppa135350
LMay 6 · 20:38P. Orlowski521111128102J. Juppa52691411123
LMay 6 · 19:30P. Orlowski348113121J. Juppa4111511143
LApr 11 · 20:53P. Orlowski391111981J. Juppa4313811113
LApr 11 · 17:45P. Orlowski4381114101J. Juppa4611716123
WApr 3 · 07:15P. Orlowski4111118113J. Juppa36791191
LMar 21 · 08:15P. Orlowski35881181J. Juppa3711114113
P. Orlowski10
WOct 3 · 14:15L. Kolman2.1010270P. Orlowski1.671211103WOct 3 · 13:45D. Brichacek1.50121181192P. Orlowski2.50149118113LSep 28 · 08:18Z. Kuksa2.20581111113P. Orlowski1.6111115582WSep 28 · 07:15P. Orlowski1.916111011113Z. Kuksa1.8011912892WSep 28 · 06:15P. Orlowski1.441111113T. Kanka2.635790WSep 28 · 05:15P. Orlowski1.73111186113R. Merkl2.0058111182LSep 27 · 08:28L. Kolman2.201711712113P. Orlowski1.611513111072LSep 27 · 07:30P. Orlowski1.738450M. Hajek2.001111113WSep 27 · 06:30P. Orlowski1.7311911113L. Kolman2.00811661LSep 27 · 05:30P. Orlowski1.53491191L. Provaznik2.3811113113
J. Juppa10
LOct 3 · 14:45D. Brichacek1.33111011113J. Juppa3.25912281LOct 3 · 13:15L. Kolman1.831111109113J. Juppa1.8387121142LOct 2 · 19:15L. Kolman1.80911119113J. Juppa1.9111451182WOct 2 · 18:45J. Juppa3.501381211113M. Hajek1.28111114992LOct 2 · 17:45J. Juppa2.753390D. Brichacek1.401111113WSep 29 · 20:58J. Juppa1.5781111113T. Bertho2.25112771LSep 29 · 20:00T. Bertho2.38111011113J. Juppa1.53512771WSep 29 · 19:00S. Kalensky2.381175101J. Juppa1.5381111123WSep 29 · 17:30J. Gruber1.50681191J. Juppa2.5011116113WSep 28 · 12:28J. Juppa1.83411119123T. Hybl1.83116611102
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