TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jachym Juppa vs Miroslav Hajek 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
13118111214119119
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:40 and never touched: 74.7% is still 74.7%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Hajek to win
74.7%
74.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJachym Juppa above · Miroslav Hajek below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 109 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Miroslav Hajek at 74.7%
109 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Juppa 2–5 Miroslav Hajek Jachym Juppa has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:4074.7%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
short by 3.1pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Hajek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Hajek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Juppa 1591 vs Hajek 1629
Hajek
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Juppa 60% vs Hajek 80%
Hajek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Juppa 60% vs Hajek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Juppa -1 · Hajek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Hajek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Juppa form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJuppa 3.50 / Hajek 1.285
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Hajek)-3.1pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229539
Juppa3.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog51% won 78 of 153
Down 0–1, comes back33% 26 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 40
Hajek1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 71 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it90% 36 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it78% 56 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeJuppa2wins
AwayHajek5wins
2 of 7 to a deciderHajek leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJuppa50%2 of 4
AwayHajek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Juppa4Hajek3n = 7Juppa took 4 of 7
S2Juppa3Hajek4n = 7Hajek took 4 of 7
S3Juppa3Hajek4n = 7Hajek took 4 of 7
S4Juppa2Hajek3n = 5Hajek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricJuppaHajekJ − HBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match31.937.9−6.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJuppaHajekBasisWin rate · lifetime442 / 840 vs 358 / 67652.6%53%442 / 840 vs 358 / 676Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HajekJuppa 3.50/Hajek 1.28
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.7%
Hajek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Juppa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 28 · 12:00J. Juppa34911681M. Hajek4211911113
LAug 26 · 18:15J. Juppa153930M. Hajek331111113
LAug 18 · 06:15J. Juppa27115471M. Hajek4071111113
WAug 8 · 15:45J. Juppa351113113M. Hajek2571170
LAug 6 · 05:15J. Juppa3716111182M. Hajek42111136113
WMay 20 · 14:45J. Juppa3611311113M. Hajek33811771
LMay 15 · 13:30J. Juppa3911115662M. Hajek50891111113
J. Juppa10
LOct 2 · 19:15L. Kolman1.80911119113J. Juppa1.9111451182LOct 2 · 17:45J. Juppa2.753390D. Brichacek1.401111113WSep 29 · 20:58J. Juppa1.5781111113T. Bertho2.25112771LSep 29 · 20:00T. Bertho2.38111011113J. Juppa1.53512771WSep 29 · 19:00S. Kalensky2.381175101J. Juppa1.5381111123WSep 29 · 17:30J. Gruber1.50681191J. Juppa2.5011116113WSep 28 · 12:28J. Juppa1.83411119123T. Hybl1.83116611102LSep 28 · 12:00M. Hajek1.3311911113J. Juppa3.25911681LSep 28 · 11:00L. Provaznik1.4011119113J. Juppa2.75981151WSep 28 · 09:30T. Hybl1.57641191J. Juppa2.2511118113
M. Hajek10
WOct 2 · 17:15L. Kolman1.83118951M. Hajek1.8381111113LOct 2 · 12:49M. Svitac2.25111211113M. Hajek1.57614651WOct 2 · 11:45M. Hajek1.611111133M. Svitac2.2089110WOct 2 · 10:15V. Lopata2.38741161M. Hajek1.5311119113WOct 2 · 09:45L. Smazik2.009101151M. Hajek1.7311129113WOct 1 · 20:43J. Jnr1.8311611472M. Hajek1.83611611113LOct 1 · 19:45M. Hajek1.5010690J. Jnr2.501211113LOct 1 · 18:15L. Stoces2.201112123M. Hajek1.61310100WOct 1 · 17:45A. Pavlik2.5010111051M. Hajek1.5012812113WSep 28 · 12:00M. Hajek1.3311911113J. Juppa3.25911681
Upcoming Matches
J. Juppa
M. Hajek
Nothing scheduled
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