TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Nataliia Plokhotniuk vs Iolanta Yevtodii 3-2 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
81111811410121210
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:28 and never touched: 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeIolanta Yevtodii to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingNataliia Plokhotniuk above · Iolanta Yevtodii below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 97 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Iolanta Yevtodii at 73.2%
97 points played in total.
H2H Nataliia Plokhotniuk 20–46 Iolanta Yevtodii Nataliia Plokhotniuk has won 20 of their 66 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:2873.2%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 0.2pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Yevtodii
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-46 in 66
Yevtodii
Wrong
gap of 26 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plokhotniuk 1700 vs Yevtodii 1836
Yevtodii
Wrong
both rated, 136 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plokhotniuk 40% vs Yevtodii 60%
Yevtodii
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plokhotniuk 20% vs Yevtodii 50%
Yevtodii
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plokhotniuk +1 · Yevtodii +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Yevtodii) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Yevtodii form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlokhotniuk 3.00 / Yevtodii 1.363
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Yevtodii)-0.2pp
Setka Cup Women · #13255602
Plokhotniuk3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 10 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back24% 4 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Yevtodii1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 20 days ago (Sep 17) · back after a break
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 55 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it79% 33 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlokhotniuk1wins
AwayYevtodii9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderYevtodii leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlokhotniukn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayYevtodii87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plokhotniuk2Yevtodii8n = 10Yevtodii took 8 of 10
S2Plokhotniuk4Yevtodii6n = 10Yevtodii took 6 of 10
S3Plokhotniuk2Yevtodii8n = 10Yevtodii took 8 of 10
S4Plokhotniuk1Yevtodii5n = 6Yevtodii took 5 of 6
S5Plokhotniuk1Yevtodii2n = 3Yevtodii took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlokhotniukYevtodiiP − YBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.639.5−5.9per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlokhotniukYevtodiiBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 172 vs 107 / 14760.5%72.8%104 / 172 vs 107 / 147Avg sets wonper match2.22.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
YevtodiiPlokhotniuk 3.00/Yevtodii 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.2%
Yevtodii · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Plokhotniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk528111110123I. Yevtodii45118412102
LSep 17 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk217950I. Yevtodii331111113
LSep 16 · 08:00N. Plokhotniuk2612860I. Yevtodii361411113
LSep 10 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk30711931I. Yevtodii4211911113
LSep 9 · 05:30N. Plokhotniuk2476110I. Yevtodii351111133
LAug 13 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk28611381I. Yevtodii3811511113
LAug 12 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2358100I. Yevtodii341111123
LJul 7 · 10:08N. Plokhotniuk4411116792I. Yevtodii42361111113
LJul 7 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk399101191I. Yevtodii4011126113
LJul 6 · 08:00N. Plokhotniuk4911971482I. Yevtodii505111112113
N. Plokhotniuk10
LOct 7 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk1.53129681U. Dronova2.38101111113WOct 7 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.171111113A. Rzhevska4.505580LOct 7 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk2.506580A. Ovriakh1.501111113LSep 17 · 11:00U. Dronova2.50117119113N. Plokhotniuk1.5071131172WSep 17 · 10:00A. Ovriakh1.4412630N. Plokhotniuk2.631411113LSep 17 · 08:30D. Kovalova1.801111113N. Plokhotniuk1.915980LSep 17 · 06:30R. Budnyk2.6311127123N. Plokhotniuk1.4491011101LSep 17 · 04:30I. Yevtodii1.401111113N. Plokhotniuk2.757950LSep 16 · 11:30U. Dronova2.63111185163N. Plokhotniuk1.44991111142LSep 16 · 10:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50115111072A. Ovriakh1.50811712113
I. Yevtodii10
WSep 17 · 10:30I. Yevtodii1.7311121311113D. Kovalova2.0051415692LSep 17 · 09:00I. Yevtodii1.221110581U. Dronova4.0091211113WSep 17 · 07:30I. Yevtodii1.259111111113R. Budnyk3.7511136472LSep 17 · 06:00I. Yevtodii2.10116961A. Ovriakh1.6781111113WSep 17 · 04:30I. Yevtodii1.401111113N. Plokhotniuk2.757950LSep 16 · 11:00I. Yevtodii2.00891251A. Ovriakh1.73111110113LSep 16 · 09:00R. Budnyk4.00115811123I. Yevtodii1.22911114102WSep 16 · 08:00I. Yevtodii1.401411113N. Plokhotniuk2.7512860WSep 16 · 07:00A. Kurtenko4.508121151I. Yevtodii1.17111013113LSep 16 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.2011841182U. Dronova4.33711119113
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