TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Nataliia Plokhotniuk vs Ulana Dronova 1-3 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210911611811––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:58 and never touched: 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeNataliia Plokhotniuk to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingNataliia Plokhotniuk above · Ulana Dronova below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 78 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Nataliia Plokhotniuk at 56.8%
78 points played in total.
H2H Nataliia Plokhotniuk 20–18 Ulana Dronova Ulana Dronova has won 18 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:5856.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 8.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-18 in 38
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plokhotniuk 1700 vs Dronova 1657
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plokhotniuk 60% vs Dronova 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plokhotniuk 30% vs Dronova 70%
Dronova
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plokhotniuk +2 · Dronova -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Plokhotniuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dronova form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlokhotniuk 1.533 / Dronova 2.375
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Plokhotniuk)-8.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup Women · #13255672
Plokhotniuk1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite66% won 44 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it100% 24 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it90% 36 of 40
Dronova2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 8 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back44% 4 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlokhotniuk8wins
AwayDronova2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPlokhotniuk leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlokhotniuk100%5 of 5
AwayDronova40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plokhotniuk5Dronova5n = 10split evenly
S2Plokhotniuk8Dronova2n = 10Plokhotniuk took 8 of 10
S3Plokhotniuk6Dronova3n = 9Plokhotniuk took 6 of 9
S4Plokhotniuk6Dronova1n = 7Plokhotniuk took 6 of 7
S5Plokhotniuk2Dronova2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlokhotniukDronovaP − DBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.436.0+6.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlokhotniukDronovaBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 172 vs 51 / 10460.5%49%104 / 172 vs 51 / 104Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PlokhotniukPlokhotniuk 1.53/Dronova 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.8%
Plokhotniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dronova won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 17 · 11:00N. Plokhotniuk3971131172U. Dronova49117119113
LSep 16 · 11:30N. Plokhotniuk54991111142U. Dronova51111185163
WAug 13 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk331111113U. Dronova178720
WAug 12 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk52911813113U. Dronova44115111162
WApr 7 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk46711116113U. Dronova3611271152
WFeb 26 · 07:05N. Plokhotniuk4112711113U. Dronova381011891
WFeb 25 · 12:40N. Plokhotniuk48101112153U. Dronova3912410131
WFeb 11 · 06:35N. Plokhotniuk3611113113U. Dronova28551171
WFeb 10 · 16:40N. Plokhotniuk331111113U. Dronova227780
N. Plokhotniuk10
WOct 7 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk3.008111110123I. Yevtodii1.36118412102WOct 7 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.171111113A. Rzhevska4.505580LOct 7 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk2.506580A. Ovriakh1.501111113LSep 17 · 11:00U. Dronova2.50117119113N. Plokhotniuk1.5071131172WSep 17 · 10:00A. Ovriakh1.4412630N. Plokhotniuk2.631411113LSep 17 · 08:30D. Kovalova1.801111113N. Plokhotniuk1.915980LSep 17 · 06:30R. Budnyk2.6311127123N. Plokhotniuk1.4491011101LSep 17 · 04:30I. Yevtodii1.401111113N. Plokhotniuk2.757950LSep 16 · 11:30U. Dronova2.63111185163N. Plokhotniuk1.44991111142LSep 16 · 10:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50115111072A. Ovriakh1.50811712113
U. Dronova10
LOct 7 · 08:00U. Dronova1.837520A. Rzhevska1.831111113WOct 7 · 07:00A. Kurtenko2.107870U. Dronova1.671111113WSep 17 · 11:00U. Dronova2.50117119113N. Plokhotniuk1.5071131172WSep 17 · 09:00I. Yevtodii1.221110581U. Dronova4.0091211113LSep 17 · 08:00U. Dronova3.7511119472A. Ovriakh1.25871111113WSep 17 · 05:30U. Dronova1.83111297113R. Budnyk1.83910111162WSep 16 · 11:30U. Dronova2.63111185163N. Plokhotniuk1.44991111142WSep 16 · 09:30A. Kurtenko1.731161091U. Dronova2.0081112113WSep 16 · 07:30R. Budnyk1.735840U. Dronova2.001111113LSep 16 · 06:30U. Dronova3.001061181A. Ovriakh1.3612114113
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