TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13142674
Played Sep 17Finished
Ulana Dronova
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191210911711116
Roksolana Budnyk
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeUlana Dronova to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingUlana Dronova above · Roksolana Budnyk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 97 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Ulana Dronova at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Ulana Dronova 7–6 Roksolana Budnyk Roksolana Budnyk has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 22h before this match
Dronova beat Budnyk 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:11What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Budnyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dronova 1646 vs Budnyk 1702
Budnyk
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dronova 80% vs Budnyk 60%
Dronova
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dronova 80% vs Budnyk 50%
Dronova
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dronova +3 · Budnyk +2
Dronova
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dronova)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dronova form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDronova 1.83 / Budnyk 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dronova)+4.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #13142674
Dronova1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Budnyk1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDronova5wins
AwayBudnyk5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDronova60%3 of 5
AwayBudnyk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dronova5Budnyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Dronova5Budnyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Dronova4Budnyk6n = 10Budnyk took 6 of 10
S4Dronova3Budnyk3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDronovaBudnykD − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.033.4−0.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDronovaBudnykBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 101 vs 57 / 11046.5%51.8%47 / 101 vs 57 / 110Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.635.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DronovaDronova 1.83/Budnyk 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dronova · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dronova won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 07:30U. Dronova331111113R. Budnyk175840
LAug 12 · 06:30U. Dronova34911951R. Budnyk3811511113
LFeb 26 · 10:05U. Dronova174850R. Budnyk331111113
LFeb 25 · 13:40U. Dronova331341061R. Budnyk45111112113
WFeb 11 · 10:05U. Dronova471041111113R. Budnyk4112118912
WFeb 10 · 14:40U. Dronova45111211113R. Budnyk371310951
LFeb 10 · 13:40U. Dronova249780R. Budnyk331111113
LJan 11 · 10:05U. Dronova28115481R. Budnyk4291111113
WJan 10 · 14:40U. Dronova3511112113R. Budnyk31781151
WSep 7 · 06:35U. Dronova341112113R. Budnyk1751020
U. Dronova10
WSep 16 · 11:30U. Dronova2.63111185163N. Plokhotniuk1.44991111142WSep 16 · 09:30A. Kurtenko1.731161091U. Dronova2.0081112113WSep 16 · 07:30R. Budnyk1.735840U. Dronova2.001111113LSep 16 · 06:30U. Dronova3.001061181A. Ovriakh1.3612114113WSep 16 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.2011841182U. Dronova4.33711119113WSep 14 · 11:30U. Dronova1.441111113S. Yureneva2.639650WSep 14 · 09:30V. Kurtenko2.2511119132U. Dronova1.57291111113WSep 14 · 07:30P. Pashchenko1.674850U. Dronova2.101111113LSep 14 · 06:30U. Dronova2.50111081172A. Rzhevska1.50412118113WSep 14 · 05:30Y. Mykhailyk3.2511112111U. Dronova1.3313811133
R. Budnyk10
WSep 17 · 06:30R. Budnyk2.6311127123N. Plokhotniuk1.4491011101WSep 16 · 10:30R. Budnyk1.53119811113A. Kurtenko2.3861111922WSep 16 · 09:00R. Budnyk4.00115811123I. Yevtodii1.22911114102LSep 16 · 07:30R. Budnyk1.735840U. Dronova2.001111113WSep 16 · 06:00R. Budnyk2.75811511113N. Plokhotniuk1.4011811882LSep 16 · 04:30R. Budnyk4.0081161142A. Ovriakh1.22118118113LSep 10 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.22101111113R. Budnyk4.00126681LSep 10 · 10:00A. Rzhevska2.501211133R. Budnyk1.50105110WSep 10 · 08:30P. Pashchenko2.25711981R. Budnyk1.5711611113LSep 10 · 06:30A. Ovriakh1.301111113R. Budnyk3.408970
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