TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13137156
Played Sep 16Finished
Alina Kurtenko
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1186111012911––
Ulana Dronova
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAlina Kurtenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAlina Kurtenko above · Ulana Dronova below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 78 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Alina Kurtenko at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Alina Kurtenko 3–5 Ulana Dronova Alina Kurtenko has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:46What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kurtenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Dronova
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurtenko 1603 vs Dronova 1620
Dronova
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurtenko 20% vs Dronova 80%
Dronova
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurtenko 50% vs Dronova 70%
Dronova
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurtenko -4 · Dronova +1
Kurtenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurtenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dronova form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurtenko 1.73 / Dronova 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kurtenko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup Women · #13137156
Kurtenko1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 39 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it66% 21 of 32
Dronova2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog14% won 2 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back14% 1 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKurtenko3wins
AwayDronova5wins
2 of 8 to a deciderDronova leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurtenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayDronova80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurtenko3Dronova5n = 8Dronova took 5 of 8
S2Kurtenko5Dronova3n = 8Kurtenko took 5 of 8
S3Kurtenko4Dronova4n = 8split evenly
S4Kurtenko2Dronova2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricKurtenkoDronovaK − DBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match33.535.9−2.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurtenkoDronovaBasisWin rate · lifetime119 / 227 vs 46 / 10052.4%46%119 / 227 vs 46 / 100Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.835.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurtenkoKurtenko 1.73/Dronova 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kurtenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dronova won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 16 · 09:30A. Kurtenko361161091U. Dronova4281112113
WAug 20 · 13:40A. Kurtenko3851111113U. Dronova28117641
LAug 13 · 08:30A. Kurtenko2331190U. Dronova351113113
LAug 12 · 11:30A. Kurtenko3731111932U. Dronova45116611113
LJul 16 · 11:00A. Kurtenko44411811102U. Dronova49119116123
WApr 7 · 09:30A. Kurtenko331111113U. Dronova248880
LFeb 25 · 14:40A. Kurtenko197930U. Dronova331111113
WFeb 11 · 08:35A. Kurtenko381411133U. Dronova31128110
A. Kurtenko10
LSep 16 · 08:30A. Kurtenko3.751161021A. Ovriakh1.2561112113LSep 16 · 07:00A. Kurtenko4.508121151I. Yevtodii1.17111013113LSep 16 · 05:00A. Kurtenko3.257890N. Plokhotniuk1.331111113LSep 13 · 17:40A. Kurtenko1.80129911162A. Rzhevska1.911011118183WSep 13 · 15:40U. Dronova1.834460A. Kurtenko1.83111162WSep 13 · 13:40S. Yureneva4.338880A. Kurtenko1.201111103LSep 13 · 12:40A. Kurtenko1.50111051182P. Pashchenko2.50712119113WSep 13 · 11:40V. Kurtenko1.8311811592A. Kurtenko1.83911911113WAug 20 · 16:40A. Kurtenko1.6781111113V. Kurtenko2.10114571WAug 20 · 15:10A. Kurtenko1.201110211113S. Yureneva4.3381211592
U. Dronova10
WSep 16 · 07:30R. Budnyk1.735840U. Dronova2.001111113LSep 16 · 06:30U. Dronova3.001061181A. Ovriakh1.3612114113WSep 16 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.2011841182U. Dronova4.33711119113WSep 14 · 11:30U. Dronova1.441111113S. Yureneva2.639650WSep 14 · 09:30V. Kurtenko2.2511119132U. Dronova1.57291111113WSep 14 · 07:30P. Pashchenko1.674850U. Dronova2.101111113LSep 14 · 06:30U. Dronova2.50111081172A. Rzhevska1.50412118113WSep 14 · 05:30Y. Mykhailyk3.2511112111U. Dronova1.3313811133WSep 13 · 16:40S. Yureneva3.00912971U. Dronova1.36111011113LSep 13 · 15:40U. Dronova1.834460A. Kurtenko1.83111162
Upcoming Matches
A. Kurtenko
Nothing scheduled
U. Dronova
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