TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13123230
Played Sep 13Finished
Alina Kurtenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12109119111181618
Anna Rzhevska
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAlina Kurtenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAlina Kurtenko above · Anna Rzhevska below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 16-18
Point 115 set 5, 16-18 — our read held Alina Kurtenko at 54.0%
115 points played in total.
H2H Alina Kurtenko 18–22 Anna Rzhevska Alina Kurtenko has won 18 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:23What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kurtenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-22 in 40
Rzhevska
Correct
gap of 4 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurtenko 1652 vs Rzhevska 1574
Kurtenko
Wrong
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurtenko 80% vs Rzhevska 40%
Kurtenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurtenko 80% vs Rzhevska 50%
Kurtenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurtenko +2 · Rzhevska -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurtenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rzhevska form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurtenko 1.80 / Rzhevska 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kurtenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup Women · #13123230
Kurtenko1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite70% won 38 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it87% 13 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it69% 20 of 29
Rzhevska1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 36 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back29% 14 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurtenko6wins
AwayRzhevska4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKurtenko leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurtenko80%4 of 5
AwayRzhevska60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurtenko5Rzhevska5n = 10split evenly
S2Kurtenko5Rzhevska5n = 10split evenly
S3Kurtenko5Rzhevska5n = 10split evenly
S4Kurtenko5Rzhevska1n = 6Kurtenko took 5 of 6
S5Kurtenko2Rzhevska2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurtenkoRzhevskaK − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.837.9+0.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurtenkoRzhevskaBasisWin rate · lifetime119 / 222 vs 149 / 27153.6%55%119 / 222 vs 149 / 271Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurtenkoKurtenko 1.80/Rzhevska 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kurtenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rzhevska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 20 · 12:10A. Kurtenko46115712113A. Rzhevska44311111092
LAug 13 · 10:00A. Kurtenko3811721172A. Rzhevska43311117113
WAug 5 · 05:30A. Kurtenko4181111113A. Rzhevska31115961
WJul 30 · 10:00A. Kurtenko45131011113A. Rzhevska411112991
LJul 23 · 08:30A. Kurtenko229580A. Rzhevska331111113
WJul 22 · 10:00A. Kurtenko471011214103A. Rzhevska48126111272
WJul 22 · 05:00A. Kurtenko361411113A. Rzhevska2312830
WJul 16 · 04:30A. Kurtenko341111123A. Rzhevska2679100
LJun 25 · 08:00A. Kurtenko4991112982A. Rzhevska501171011113
LJun 24 · 07:35A. Kurtenko3016860A. Rzhevska401811113
A. Kurtenko10
WSep 13 · 15:40U. Dronova1.834460A. Kurtenko1.83111162WSep 13 · 13:40S. Yureneva4.338880A. Kurtenko1.201111103LSep 13 · 12:40A. Kurtenko1.50111051182P. Pashchenko2.50712119113WSep 13 · 11:40V. Kurtenko1.8311811592A. Kurtenko1.83911911113WAug 20 · 16:40A. Kurtenko1.6781111113V. Kurtenko2.10114571WAug 20 · 15:10A. Kurtenko1.201110211113S. Yureneva4.3381211592WAug 20 · 13:40A. Kurtenko2.2551111113U. Dronova1.57117641WAug 20 · 12:10A. Kurtenko1.80115712113A. Rzhevska1.91311111092WAug 20 · 10:40A. Kurtenko1.1711119113A. Plashchynska4.50261151LAug 13 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.17291111113A. Kurtenko4.5011118682
A. Rzhevska10
LSep 13 · 16:10A. Rzhevska1.83713841P. Pashchenko1.83111111113WSep 13 · 14:10V. Kurtenko3.00119591A. Rzhevska1.3671111103LSep 13 · 12:10S. Yureneva1.611111143A. Rzhevska2.2094120WSep 13 · 11:10U. Dronova2.10512871A. Rzhevska1.67111011113LSep 10 · 11:30A. Ovriakh1.1412611113A. Rzhevska5.001011451WSep 10 · 10:00A. Rzhevska2.501211133R. Budnyk1.50105110WSep 10 · 08:00I. Yevtodii1.251111461A. Rzhevska3.7591311113LSep 10 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.171111113A. Rzhevska4.504740LSep 10 · 05:00P. Pashchenko1.9114911133A. Rzhevska1.8012117111LAug 20 · 12:10A. Kurtenko1.80115712113A. Rzhevska1.91311111092
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