TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13107077
Played Sep 10Finished
Polina Pashchenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
14129111171311––
Anna Rzhevska
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:52 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeAnna Rzhevska to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPolina Pashchenko above · Anna Rzhevska below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 88 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Anna Rzhevska at 55.3%
88 points played in total.
H2H Polina Pashchenko 6–6 Anna Rzhevska Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 23h before this match
Rzhevska beat Pashchenko 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:52What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Rzhevska
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pashchenko 1527 vs Rzhevska 1599
Rzhevska
Wrong
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pashchenko 20% vs Rzhevska 60%
Rzhevska
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pashchenko 50% vs Rzhevska 70%
Rzhevska
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pashchenko +1 · Rzhevska +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Rzhevska)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pashchenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPashchenko 1.91 / Rzhevska 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Rzhevska)+3.8pp
Setka Cup Women · #13107077
Pashchenko1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Rzhevska1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePashchenko5wins
AwayRzhevska5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePashchenko80%4 of 5
AwayRzhevska80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pashchenko5Rzhevska5n = 10split evenly
S2Pashchenko5Rzhevska5n = 10split evenly
S3Pashchenko6Rzhevska4n = 10Pashchenko took 6 of 10
S4Pashchenko3Rzhevska1n = 4Pashchenko took 3 of 4
S5Pashchenko1Rzhevska2n = 3Rzhevska took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPashchenkoRzhevskaP − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.234.0+0.2per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPashchenkoRzhevskaBasisWin rate · lifetime69 / 127 vs 145 / 26254.3%55.3%69 / 127 vs 145 / 262Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RzhevskaPashchenko 1.91/Rzhevska 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Rzhevska · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pashchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 06:00P. Pashchenko—1640A. Rzhevska—1111113
WSep 1 · 04:30P. Pashchenko—1111113A. Rzhevska—8480
LAug 21 · 08:30P. Pashchenko—117291A. Rzhevska—71111113
WAug 4 · 09:28P. Pashchenko—1511911113A. Rzhevska—17811932
WAug 4 · 04:30P. Pashchenko—1111143A. Rzhevska—88120
WAug 2 · 13:10P. Pashchenko—1111103A. Rzhevska—6560
LJul 30 · 11:00P. Pashchenko—9750A. Rzhevska—1111113
WJun 26 · 07:00P. Pashchenko—1111113A. Rzhevska—9770
LJun 21 · 09:05P. Pashchenko—941111102A. Rzhevska—111189123
LJun 19 · 06:00P. Pashchenko—89111162A. Rzhevska—111159113
P. Pashchenko10
WSep 9 · 10:30P. Pashchenko2.751111113R. Budnyk1.406840LSep 9 · 09:00P. Pashchenko3.75211981N. Plokhotniuk1.2511911113LSep 9 · 07:30P. Pashchenko4.3310890I. Yevtodii1.201211113LSep 9 · 06:00P. Pashchenko1.731640A. Rzhevska2.001111113LSep 9 · 04:30P. Pashchenko6.001191341A. Ovriakh1.1191115113LSep 1 · 11:00Y. Mykhailyk1.8011411113P. Pashchenko1.91811781WSep 1 · 10:00A. Plashchynska6.004390P. Pashchenko1.111111113WSep 1 · 08:30V. Kurtenko1.73111113552P. Pashchenko2.00481511113WSep 1 · 06:30S. Yureneva1.44111141042P. Pashchenko2.63641112113WSep 1 · 04:30A. Rzhevska1.738480P. Pashchenko2.001111113
A. Rzhevska10
LSep 10 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.171111113A. Rzhevska4.504740WSep 9 · 11:30I. Yevtodii1.177650A. Rzhevska4.501111113LSep 9 · 10:00A. Rzhevska5.00513591A. Ovriakh1.14111111113LSep 9 · 08:00N. Plokhotniuk1.201111113A. Rzhevska4.338540WSep 9 · 06:00P. Pashchenko1.731640A. Rzhevska2.001111113WSep 9 · 05:00R. Budnyk1.4411890A. Rzhevska2.631311113WSep 6 · 16:09Y. Mykhailyk2.201011751A. Rzhevska1.6112211113WSep 6 · 15:10O. Melnik6.00111351A. Rzhevska1.1111811113LSep 6 · 13:40A. Rzhevska1.50811481Y. Mykhailyk2.5011211113LSep 1 · 04:30A. Rzhevska1.738480P. Pashchenko2.001111113
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