TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13137132
Played Sep 16Finished
Ulana Dronova
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191198115111614
Nataliia Plokhotniuk
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:35 and never touched — 68.1% is still 68.1%
Graded at full timeNataliia Plokhotniuk to win
68.1%
68.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingUlana Dronova above · Nataliia Plokhotniuk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 16-14
Point 105 set 5, 16-14 — our read held Nataliia Plokhotniuk at 68.1%
105 points played in total.
H2H Ulana Dronova 16–20 Nataliia Plokhotniuk Ulana Dronova has won 16 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:35What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-20 in 36
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
gap of 4 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dronova 1632 vs Plokhotniuk 1736
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dronova 80% vs Plokhotniuk 40%
Dronova
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dronova 80% vs Plokhotniuk 40%
Dronova
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dronova +2 · Plokhotniuk -3
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Plokhotniuk) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plokhotniuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDronova 2.63 / Plokhotniuk 1.44
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Plokhotniuk)+0.8pp
Setka Cup Women · #13137132
Dronova2.63
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog14% won 2 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back14% 1 of 7
Plokhotniuk1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 56 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it100% 32 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDronova0wins
AwayPlokhotniuk10wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPlokhotniuk leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDronova0%0 of 3
AwayPlokhotniuk100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dronova3Plokhotniuk7n = 10Plokhotniuk took 7 of 10
S2Dronova1Plokhotniuk9n = 10Plokhotniuk took 9 of 10
S3Dronova3Plokhotniuk7n = 10Plokhotniuk took 7 of 10
S4Dronova2Plokhotniuk4n = 6Plokhotniuk took 4 of 6
S5Dronova0Plokhotniuk3n = 3Plokhotniuk took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricDronovaPlokhotniukD − PBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.240.2−9.0per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDronovaPlokhotniukBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 100 vs 102 / 16446%62.2%46 / 100 vs 102 / 164Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlokhotniukDronova 2.63/Plokhotniuk 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.3%
Plokhotniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dronova won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 10:30U. Dronova178720N. Plokhotniuk331111113
LAug 12 · 07:30U. Dronova44115111162N. Plokhotniuk52911813113
LApr 7 · 07:30U. Dronova3611271152N. Plokhotniuk46711116113
LApr 6 · 15:40U. Dronova209380N. Plokhotniuk321111103
LFeb 26 · 07:05U. Dronova381011891N. Plokhotniuk4112711113
LFeb 25 · 12:40U. Dronova3912410131N. Plokhotniuk48101112153
LFeb 11 · 06:35U. Dronova28551171N. Plokhotniuk3611113113
LFeb 10 · 16:40U. Dronova227780N. Plokhotniuk331111113
LFeb 10 · 11:40U. Dronova2561090N. Plokhotniuk341112113
LJan 11 · 07:05U. Dronova4386111172N. Plokhotniuk47111168113
U. Dronova10
WSep 16 · 09:30A. Kurtenko1.731161091U. Dronova2.0081112113WSep 16 · 07:30R. Budnyk1.735840U. Dronova2.001111113LSep 16 · 06:30U. Dronova3.001061181A. Ovriakh1.3612114113WSep 16 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.2011841182U. Dronova4.33711119113WSep 14 · 11:30U. Dronova1.441111113S. Yureneva2.639650WSep 14 · 09:30V. Kurtenko2.2511119132U. Dronova1.57291111113WSep 14 · 07:30P. Pashchenko1.674850U. Dronova2.101111113LSep 14 · 06:30U. Dronova2.50111081172A. Rzhevska1.50412118113WSep 14 · 05:30Y. Mykhailyk3.2511112111U. Dronova1.3313811133WSep 13 · 16:40S. Yureneva3.00912971U. Dronova1.36111011113
N. Plokhotniuk10
LSep 16 · 10:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50115111072A. Ovriakh1.50811712113LSep 16 · 08:00I. Yevtodii1.401411113N. Plokhotniuk2.7512860LSep 16 · 06:00R. Budnyk2.75811511113N. Plokhotniuk1.4011811882WSep 16 · 05:00A. Kurtenko3.257890N. Plokhotniuk1.331111113WSep 10 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.221111113P. Pashchenko4.007150LSep 10 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.75711931I. Yevtodii1.4011911113LSep 10 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk2.209540A. Ovriakh1.611111113WSep 10 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.171111113A. Rzhevska4.504740LSep 10 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.3361090R. Budnyk3.251112113WSep 9 · 11:00N. Plokhotniuk1.911112109113A. Ovriakh1.80610121182
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