TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13137133
Played Sep 16Finished
Nataliia Plokhotniuk
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1185111171012711
Alina Ovriakh
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:36 and never touched — 62.7% is still 62.7%
Graded at full timeAlina Ovriakh to win
62.7%
62.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNataliia Plokhotniuk above · Alina Ovriakh below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 93 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Alina Ovriakh at 62.7%
93 points played in total.
H2H Nataliia Plokhotniuk 10–10 Alina Ovriakh Dead even across their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:36What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Ovriakh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-10 in 20
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plokhotniuk 1742 vs Ovriakh 1932
Ovriakh
Correct
both rated, 190 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plokhotniuk 40% vs Ovriakh 100%
Ovriakh
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plokhotniuk 50% vs Ovriakh 90%
Ovriakh
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plokhotniuk -2 · Ovriakh +5
Ovriakh
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Ovriakh) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovriakh form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlokhotniuk 2.50 / Ovriakh 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 64%
Edge (Ovriakh)+1.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #13137133
Plokhotniuk2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 10 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back22% 4 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Ovriakh1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite73% won 41 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it87% 32 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlokhotniuk3wins
AwayOvriakh7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOvriakh leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlokhotniuk75%3 of 4
AwayOvriakh100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plokhotniuk4Ovriakh6n = 10Ovriakh took 6 of 10
S2Plokhotniuk3Ovriakh7n = 10Ovriakh took 7 of 10
S3Plokhotniuk4Ovriakh6n = 10Ovriakh took 6 of 10
S4Plokhotniuk3Ovriakh3n = 6split evenly
S5Plokhotniuk1Ovriakh2n = 3Ovriakh took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlokhotniukOvriakhP − OBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.739.1−4.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlokhotniukOvriakhBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 163 vs 62 / 9162.6%68.1%102 / 163 vs 62 / 91Avg sets wonper match2.22.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvriakhPlokhotniuk 2.50/Ovriakh 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.5%
Ovriakh · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ovriakh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk189540A. Ovriakh331111113
WSep 9 · 11:00N. Plokhotniuk531112109113A. Ovriakh47610121182
LAug 13 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk2210750A. Ovriakh341211113
LAug 12 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk36971191A. Ovriakh4111118113
LJul 23 · 10:03N. Plokhotniuk43411711102A. Ovriakh50119117123
LJul 23 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk26112761A. Ovriakh3741111113
LJul 22 · 09:30N. Plokhotniuk46109111152A. Ovriakh51121198113
WJul 22 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk4411912123A. Ovriakh3981110101
LJul 7 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk2248100A. Ovriakh341111123
WJul 6 · 07:00N. Plokhotniuk371511113A. Ovriakh2513750
N. Plokhotniuk10
LSep 16 · 11:30U. Dronova2.63111185163N. Plokhotniuk1.44991111142LSep 16 · 08:00I. Yevtodii1.401411113N. Plokhotniuk2.7512860LSep 16 · 06:00R. Budnyk2.75811511113N. Plokhotniuk1.4011811882WSep 16 · 05:00A. Kurtenko3.257890N. Plokhotniuk1.331111113WSep 10 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.221111113P. Pashchenko4.007150LSep 10 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.75711931I. Yevtodii1.4011911113LSep 10 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk2.209540A. Ovriakh1.611111113WSep 10 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.171111113A. Rzhevska4.504740LSep 10 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.3361090R. Budnyk3.251112113WSep 9 · 11:00N. Plokhotniuk1.911112109113A. Ovriakh1.80610121182
A. Ovriakh10
WSep 16 · 11:00I. Yevtodii2.00891251A. Ovriakh1.73111110113WSep 16 · 08:30A. Kurtenko3.751161021A. Ovriakh1.2561112113WSep 16 · 06:30U. Dronova3.001061181A. Ovriakh1.3612114113WSep 16 · 04:30R. Budnyk4.0081161142A. Ovriakh1.22118118113WSep 10 · 11:30A. Ovriakh1.1412611113A. Rzhevska5.001011451WSep 10 · 09:30P. Pashchenko6.50117531A. Ovriakh1.1081111113WSep 10 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk2.209540A. Ovriakh1.611111113WSep 10 · 06:30A. Ovriakh1.301111113R. Budnyk3.408970WSep 10 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.838950A. Ovriakh1.831111113LSep 9 · 11:00N. Plokhotniuk1.911112109113A. Ovriakh1.80610121182
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