TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13107090
Played Sep 10Finished
Nataliia Plokhotniuk
Home
1.22
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117111115––––
Polina Pashchenko
Away
4.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:06 and never touched — 78.3% is still 78.3%
Graded at full timeNataliia Plokhotniuk to win
78.3%
78.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNataliia Plokhotniuk above · Polina Pashchenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 46 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Nataliia Plokhotniuk at 78.3%
46 points played in total.
H2H Nataliia Plokhotniuk 2–0 Polina Pashchenko Polina Pashchenko has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:06What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Plokhotniuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Plokhotniuk 1748 vs Pashchenko 1529
Plokhotniuk
Correct
both rated, 220 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plokhotniuk 40% vs Pashchenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plokhotniuk 50% vs Pashchenko 20%
Plokhotniuk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plokhotniuk -2 · Pashchenko -3
Pashchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Plokhotniuk) · live re-read · sealed at 78% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pashchenko form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlokhotniuk 1.22 / Pashchenko 4.00
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Plokhotniuk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup Women · #13107090
Plokhotniuk1.22
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Pashchenko4.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePlokhotniuk2wins
AwayPashchenko0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderPlokhotniuk leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPlokhotniukPashchenkoPlokhotniuk − PashchenkoBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match44.532.5+12.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlokhotniukPashchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime103 / 168 vs 70 / 13161.3%53.4%103 / 168 vs 70 / 131Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.535.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlokhotniukPlokhotniuk 1.22/Pashchenko 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Plokhotniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Plokhotniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 9 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk—11911113P. Pashchenko—211981
WMay 29 · 05:00N. Plokhotniuk—511119113P. Pashchenko—11331172
N. Plokhotniuk10
LSep 10 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.75711931I. Yevtodii1.4011911113LSep 10 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk2.209540A. Ovriakh1.611111113WSep 10 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.171111113A. Rzhevska4.504740LSep 10 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.3361090R. Budnyk3.251112113WSep 9 · 11:00N. Plokhotniuk1.911112109113A. Ovriakh1.80610121182WSep 9 · 09:00P. Pashchenko3.75211981N. Plokhotniuk1.2511911113WSep 9 · 08:00N. Plokhotniuk1.201111113A. Rzhevska4.338540LSep 9 · 07:00R. Budnyk3.40811145113N. Plokhotniuk1.30118121192LSep 9 · 05:30N. Plokhotniuk2.6376110I. Yevtodii1.441111133WAug 13 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.501111113U. Dronova2.508720
P. Pashchenko10
LSep 10 · 09:30P. Pashchenko6.50117531A. Ovriakh1.1081111113LSep 10 · 08:30P. Pashchenko2.25711981R. Budnyk1.5711611113LSep 10 · 07:00P. Pashchenko6.50911741I. Yevtodii1.1011911113WSep 10 · 05:00P. Pashchenko1.9114911133A. Rzhevska1.8012117111WSep 9 · 10:30P. Pashchenko2.751111113R. Budnyk1.406840LSep 9 · 09:00P. Pashchenko3.75211981N. Plokhotniuk1.2511911113LSep 9 · 07:30P. Pashchenko4.3310890I. Yevtodii1.201211113LSep 9 · 06:00P. Pashchenko1.731640A. Rzhevska2.001111113LSep 9 · 04:30P. Pashchenko6.001191341A. Ovriakh1.1191115113LSep 1 · 11:00Y. Mykhailyk1.8011411113P. Pashchenko1.91811781
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