TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13142718
Played Sep 17Finished
Ulana Dronova
Home
3.75
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118117911411711
Alina Ovriakh
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:13 and never touched — 75.0% is still 75.0%
Graded at full timeAlina Ovriakh to win
75.0%
75.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingUlana Dronova above · Alina Ovriakh below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 90 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Alina Ovriakh at 75.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Ulana Dronova 1–2 Alina Ovriakh Ulana Dronova has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:13What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Ovriakh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dronova 1659 vs Ovriakh 1970
Ovriakh
Correct
both rated, 312 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dronova 80% vs Ovriakh 100%
Ovriakh
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dronova 80% vs Ovriakh 100%
Ovriakh
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dronova +4 · Ovriakh +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Ovriakh)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovriakh form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDronova 3.75 / Ovriakh 1.25
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Ovriakh)+0.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #13142718
Dronova3.75
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 6 of 19
Down 0–1, comes back30% 3 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Ovriakh1.25
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite75% won 46 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it88% 35 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeDronova1wins
AwayOvriakh2wins
Ovriakh leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDronovan = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayOvriakh66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dronova0Ovriakh3n = 3Ovriakh took 3 of 3
S2Dronova1Ovriakh2n = 3Ovriakh took 2 of 3
S3Dronova2Ovriakh1n = 3Dronova took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricDronovaOvriakhD − OBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match32.034.7−2.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDronovaOvriakhBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 102 vs 65 / 9447.1%69.2%48 / 102 vs 65 / 94Avg sets wonper match1.92.5per matchAvg pointsper match35.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvriakhDronova 3.75/Ovriakh 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75%
Ovriakh · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ovriakh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 16 · 06:30U. Dronova351061181A. Ovriakh3812114113
LAug 13 · 09:30U. Dronova195680A. Ovriakh331111113
WAug 12 · 09:30U. Dronova4291111113A. Ovriakh33118951
U. Dronova10
WSep 17 · 09:00I. Yevtodii1.221110581U. Dronova4.0091211113WSep 17 · 05:30U. Dronova1.83111297113R. Budnyk1.83910111162WSep 16 · 11:30U. Dronova2.63111185163N. Plokhotniuk1.44991111142WSep 16 · 09:30A. Kurtenko1.731161091U. Dronova2.0081112113WSep 16 · 07:30R. Budnyk1.735840U. Dronova2.001111113LSep 16 · 06:30U. Dronova3.001061181A. Ovriakh1.3612114113WSep 16 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.2011841182U. Dronova4.33711119113WSep 14 · 11:30U. Dronova1.441111113S. Yureneva2.639650WSep 14 · 09:30V. Kurtenko2.2511119132U. Dronova1.57291111113WSep 14 · 07:30P. Pashchenko1.674850U. Dronova2.101111113
A. Ovriakh10
WSep 17 · 06:00I. Yevtodii2.10116961A. Ovriakh1.6781111113WSep 16 · 11:00I. Yevtodii2.00891251A. Ovriakh1.73111110113WSep 16 · 10:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50115111072A. Ovriakh1.50811712113WSep 16 · 08:30A. Kurtenko3.751161021A. Ovriakh1.2561112113WSep 16 · 06:30U. Dronova3.001061181A. Ovriakh1.3612114113WSep 16 · 04:30R. Budnyk4.0081161142A. Ovriakh1.22118118113WSep 10 · 11:30A. Ovriakh1.1412611113A. Rzhevska5.001011451WSep 10 · 09:30P. Pashchenko6.50117531A. Ovriakh1.1081111113WSep 10 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk2.209540A. Ovriakh1.611111113WSep 10 · 06:30A. Ovriakh1.301111113R. Budnyk3.408970
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