TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13142642
Played Sep 17Finished
Iolanta Yevtodii
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117119115––––
Nataliia Plokhotniuk
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:11 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeIolanta Yevtodii to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIolanta Yevtodii above · Nataliia Plokhotniuk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 54 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Iolanta Yevtodii at 67.9%
54 points played in total.
H2H Iolanta Yevtodii 45–19 Nataliia Plokhotniuk Nataliia Plokhotniuk has won 19 of their 64 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 21h before this match
Yevtodii beat Plokhotniuk 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:11What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Yevtodii
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-19 in 64
Yevtodii
Correct
gap of 26 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Yevtodii 1861 vs Plokhotniuk 1722
Yevtodii
Correct
both rated, 139 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Yevtodii 40% vs Plokhotniuk 20%
Yevtodii
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Yevtodii 50% vs Plokhotniuk 30%
Yevtodii
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Yevtodii -2 · Plokhotniuk -4
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Yevtodii)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plokhotniuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsYevtodii 1.40 / Plokhotniuk 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Yevtodii)+1.6pp
Setka Cup Women · #13142642
Yevtodii1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite75% won 67 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it84% 43 of 51
Plokhotniuk2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 10 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back22% 4 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeYevtodii9wins
AwayPlokhotniuk1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderYevtodii leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeYevtodii100%6 of 6
AwayPlokhotniuk25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Yevtodii6Plokhotniuk4n = 10Yevtodii took 6 of 10
S2Yevtodii7Plokhotniuk3n = 10Yevtodii took 7 of 10
S3Yevtodii7Plokhotniuk3n = 10Yevtodii took 7 of 10
S4Yevtodii5Plokhotniuk2n = 7Yevtodii took 5 of 7
S5Yevtodii3Plokhotniuk0n = 3Yevtodii took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricYevtodiiPlokhotniukY − PBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.835.6+5.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricYevtodiiPlokhotniukBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 141 vs 102 / 16573.8%61.8%104 / 141 vs 102 / 165Avg sets wonper match2.52.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
YevtodiiYevtodii 1.40/Plokhotniuk 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Yevtodii · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Yevtodii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 08:00I. Yevtodii361411113N. Plokhotniuk2612860
WSep 10 · 09:00I. Yevtodii4211911113N. Plokhotniuk30711931
WSep 9 · 05:30I. Yevtodii351111133N. Plokhotniuk2476110
WAug 13 · 09:00I. Yevtodii3811511113N. Plokhotniuk28611381
WAug 12 · 09:00I. Yevtodii341111123N. Plokhotniuk2358100
WJul 7 · 10:08I. Yevtodii42361111113N. Plokhotniuk4411116792
WJul 7 · 04:30I. Yevtodii4011126113N. Plokhotniuk399101191
WJul 6 · 08:00I. Yevtodii505111112113N. Plokhotniuk4911971482
LJun 25 · 10:30I. Yevtodii34911861N. Plokhotniuk3811511113
WJun 24 · 07:05I. Yevtodii578131411113N. Plokhotniuk55111116982
I. Yevtodii10
LSep 17 · 06:00I. Yevtodii2.10116961A. Ovriakh1.6781111113LSep 16 · 11:00I. Yevtodii2.00891251A. Ovriakh1.73111110113LSep 16 · 09:00R. Budnyk4.00115811123I. Yevtodii1.22911114102WSep 16 · 08:00I. Yevtodii1.401411113N. Plokhotniuk2.7512860WSep 16 · 07:00A. Kurtenko4.508121151I. Yevtodii1.17111013113LSep 16 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.2011841182U. Dronova4.33711119113WSep 10 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.22101111113R. Budnyk4.00126681WSep 10 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.75711931I. Yevtodii1.4011911113LSep 10 · 08:00I. Yevtodii1.251111461A. Rzhevska3.7591311113WSep 10 · 07:00P. Pashchenko6.50911741I. Yevtodii1.1011911113
N. Plokhotniuk10
LSep 17 · 06:30R. Budnyk2.6311127123N. Plokhotniuk1.4491011101LSep 16 · 11:30U. Dronova2.63111185163N. Plokhotniuk1.44991111142LSep 16 · 10:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50115111072A. Ovriakh1.50811712113LSep 16 · 08:00I. Yevtodii1.401411113N. Plokhotniuk2.7512860LSep 16 · 06:00R. Budnyk2.75811511113N. Plokhotniuk1.4011811882WSep 16 · 05:00A. Kurtenko3.257890N. Plokhotniuk1.331111113WSep 10 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.221111113P. Pashchenko4.007150LSep 10 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.75711931I. Yevtodii1.4011911113LSep 10 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk2.209540A. Ovriakh1.611111113WSep 10 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.171111113A. Rzhevska4.504740
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