TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13142838
Played Sep 17Finished
Alina Ovriakh
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1214611311––––
Nataliia Plokhotniuk
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:22 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeAlina Ovriakh to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAlina Ovriakh above · Nataliia Plokhotniuk below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 57 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Alina Ovriakh at 61.2%
57 points played in total.
H2H Alina Ovriakh 11–10 Nataliia Plokhotniuk Nataliia Plokhotniuk has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:22What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Ovriakh
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-10 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ovriakh 1974 vs Plokhotniuk 1685
Ovriakh
Wrong
both rated, 288 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ovriakh 100% vs Plokhotniuk 0%
Ovriakh
Wrong
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ovriakh 100% vs Plokhotniuk 20%
Ovriakh
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ovriakh +5 · Plokhotniuk -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Ovriakh) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plokhotniuk form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvriakh 1.44 / Plokhotniuk 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Ovriakh)+0.4pp
Setka Cup Women · #13142838
Ovriakh1.44
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite75% won 46 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it88% 35 of 40
Plokhotniuk2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 10 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back21% 4 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back14% 2 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOvriakh8wins
AwayPlokhotniuk2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOvriakh leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOvriakh100%6 of 6
AwayPlokhotniuk50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ovriakh6Plokhotniuk4n = 10Ovriakh took 6 of 10
S2Ovriakh8Plokhotniuk2n = 10Ovriakh took 8 of 10
S3Ovriakh6Plokhotniuk4n = 10Ovriakh took 6 of 10
S4Ovriakh4Plokhotniuk3n = 7Ovriakh took 4 of 7
S5Ovriakh3Plokhotniuk1n = 4Ovriakh took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOvriakhPlokhotniukO − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.535.4+6.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvriakhPlokhotniukBasisWin rate · lifetime66 / 95 vs 102 / 16869.5%60.7%66 / 95 vs 102 / 168Avg sets wonper match2.52.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvriakhOvriakh 1.44/Plokhotniuk 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Ovriakh · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Plokhotniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 10:00A. Ovriakh49811712113N. Plokhotniuk44115111072
WSep 10 · 07:30A. Ovriakh331111113N. Plokhotniuk189540
LSep 9 · 11:00A. Ovriakh47610121182N. Plokhotniuk531112109113
WAug 13 · 07:30A. Ovriakh341211113N. Plokhotniuk2210750
WAug 12 · 10:30A. Ovriakh4111118113N. Plokhotniuk36971191
WJul 23 · 10:03A. Ovriakh50119117123N. Plokhotniuk43411711102
WJul 23 · 09:00A. Ovriakh3741111113N. Plokhotniuk26112761
WJul 22 · 09:30A. Ovriakh51121198113N. Plokhotniuk46109111152
LJul 22 · 04:30A. Ovriakh3981110101N. Plokhotniuk4411912123
WJul 7 · 07:30A. Ovriakh341111123N. Plokhotniuk2248100
A. Ovriakh10
WSep 17 · 08:00U. Dronova3.7511119472A. Ovriakh1.25871111113WSep 17 · 06:00I. Yevtodii2.10116961A. Ovriakh1.6781111113WSep 16 · 11:00I. Yevtodii2.00891251A. Ovriakh1.73111110113WSep 16 · 10:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50115111072A. Ovriakh1.50811712113WSep 16 · 08:30A. Kurtenko3.751161021A. Ovriakh1.2561112113WSep 16 · 06:30U. Dronova3.001061181A. Ovriakh1.3612114113WSep 16 · 04:30R. Budnyk4.0081161142A. Ovriakh1.22118118113WSep 10 · 11:30A. Ovriakh1.1412611113A. Rzhevska5.001011451WSep 10 · 09:30P. Pashchenko6.50117531A. Ovriakh1.1081111113WSep 10 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk2.209540A. Ovriakh1.611111113
N. Plokhotniuk10
LSep 17 · 08:30D. Kovalova1.801111113N. Plokhotniuk1.915980LSep 17 · 06:30R. Budnyk2.6311127123N. Plokhotniuk1.4491011101LSep 17 · 04:30I. Yevtodii1.401111113N. Plokhotniuk2.757950LSep 16 · 11:30U. Dronova2.63111185163N. Plokhotniuk1.44991111142LSep 16 · 10:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50115111072A. Ovriakh1.50811712113LSep 16 · 08:00I. Yevtodii1.401411113N. Plokhotniuk2.7512860LSep 16 · 06:00R. Budnyk2.75811511113N. Plokhotniuk1.4011811882WSep 16 · 05:00A. Kurtenko3.257890N. Plokhotniuk1.331111113WSep 10 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.221111113P. Pashchenko4.007150LSep 10 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk2.209540A. Ovriakh1.611111113
Upcoming Matches
A. Ovriakh
N. Plokhotniuk
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