TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Kubat vs Vojtech Koutnik 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1187111195111113
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:07 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koutnik to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Vojtech Koutnik @ 1.61 · Won
How it is goingPetr Kubat above · Vojtech Koutnik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 97 set 5, 11-13 · our read held Vojtech Koutnik at 58.1%
97 points played in total.
H2H Petr Kubat 12–13 Vojtech Koutnik Petr Kubat has won 12 of their 25 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 14:0758.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Koutnik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-13 in 25
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubat 1337 vs Koutnik 1599
Koutnik
Correct
both rated, 262 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubat 0% vs Koutnik 40%
Koutnik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubat 20% vs Koutnik 50%
Koutnik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubat -7 · Koutnik -2
Kubat
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Koutnik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koutnik form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubat 2.20 / Koutnik 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Koutnik)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13247786
Kubat2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 9 days ago (Sep 26) · back after a break
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 12 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back8% 2 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Koutnik1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 03)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite66% won 52 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it71% 40 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKubat5wins
AwayKoutnik5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubat75%3 of 4
AwayKoutnik66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubat4Koutnik6n = 10Koutnik took 6 of 10
S2Kubat2Koutnik8n = 10Koutnik took 8 of 10
S3Kubat6Koutnik4n = 10Kubat took 6 of 10
S4Kubat4Koutnik4n = 8split evenly
S5Kubat4Koutnik1n = 5Kubat took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKubatKoutnikKubat − KoutnikBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.641.5−3.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubatKoutnikBasisWin rate · lifetime74 / 207 vs 180 / 36835.8%48.9%74 / 207 vs 180 / 368Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KoutnikKubat 2.20/Koutnik 1.61
Hit
What we said
58.1%
Koutnik · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Vojtech Koutnik @ 1.61 · Won
What happened
2–3
Koutnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMar 29 · 07:55P. Kubat46581111113V. Koutnik4511119592
LFeb 22 · 21:25P. Kubat24231271V. Koutnik43111110113
WFeb 16 · 18:25P. Kubat50891111113V. Koutnik4411117782
LDec 15 · 22:25P. Kubat30117571V. Koutnik4181111113
LNov 4 · 23:35P. Kubat33813751V. Koutnik44111111113
LNov 4 · 20:25P. Kubat208660V. Koutnik331111113
WOct 1 · 15:40P. Kubat331111113V. Koutnik228770
WAug 18 · 16:10P. Kubat44113811113V. Koutnik4691111782
LJun 16 · 17:55P. Kubat4789121172V. Koutnik481111105113
WJun 16 · 15:10P. Kubat49116118133V. Koutnik49711911112
P. Kubat10
LSep 26 · 10:00Z. Muhlhauser1.5310111110113P. Kubat2.3812891222LSep 26 · 08:55P. Kubat2.381081131T. Cerveny Jr1.5312112113LSep 26 · 07:55P. Kubat2.505711111Z. Muhlhauser1.5011119133LSep 18 · 13:25T. Cerveny Jr1.8013117113P. Kubat1.911191141LSep 18 · 12:20P. Kubat2.6310820A. Brandtl Jr1.441211113LSep 18 · 11:20P. Kubat1.61681361T. Cerveny Jr2.20111111113LSep 18 · 10:20P. Kubat2.0041111462L. Rek1.73118611113WAug 27 · 17:25P. Kubat1.9114711143P. Vodal1.8012119121WAug 27 · 16:50P. Kubat2.1011119113P. Vodal1.67741181LAug 27 · 15:20A. Brandtl Jr2.7551111113P. Kubat1.40119661
V. Koutnik10
LOct 3 · 18:04V. Koutnik1.50711541A. Brandtl Jr2.4011911113LOct 3 · 16:55J. Cousin2.1041111123V. Koutnik1.671195101WOct 3 · 16:25A. Brandtl Jr2.2515960V. Koutnik1.571711103LOct 3 · 15:25V. Koutnik1.8011981182D. Zelezny1.91711118113WOct 3 · 14:00A. Brandtl Jr2.251061111112V. Koutnik1.57121194133WOct 3 · 13:25D. Zelezny2.00711751V. Koutnik1.7311811113LOct 3 · 12:25V. Koutnik1.53125111192A. Brandtl Jr2.381011135113LOct 3 · 10:55J. Sebl2.20111116113V. Koutnik1.6111591192WOct 1 · 17:50T. Rein2.601191141V. Koutnik1.4513115113WOct 1 · 16:20T. Cerveny Jr2.25871171V. Koutnik1.5711117113
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