TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Vojtech Koutnik vs Ales Brandtl Jr 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12105111113115911
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:10 and never touched: 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koutnik to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVojtech Koutnik above · Ales Brandtl Jr below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 98 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Vojtech Koutnik at 64.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Koutnik 13–10 Ales Brandtl Jr Ales Brandtl Jr has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1064.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Koutnik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-10 in 23
Koutnik
Wrong
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koutnik 1631 vs Brandtl Jr 1497
Koutnik
Wrong
both rated, 134 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koutnik 60% vs Brandtl Jr 20%
Koutnik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koutnik 70% vs Brandtl Jr 40%
Koutnik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koutnik -1 · Brandtl Jr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Koutnik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brandtl Jr form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoutnik 1.533 / Brandtl Jr 2.375
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Koutnik)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13235966
Koutnik1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 50 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it76% 38 of 50
Brandtl Jr2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 74 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back28% 31 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back12% 8 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoutnik6wins
AwayBrandtl Jr4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKoutnik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoutnik50%3 of 6
AwayBrandtl Jr25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koutnik6Brandtl Jr4n = 10Koutnik took 6 of 10
S2Koutnik6Brandtl Jr4n = 10Koutnik took 6 of 10
S3Koutnik7Brandtl Jr3n = 10Koutnik took 7 of 10
S4Koutnik3Brandtl Jr6n = 9Brandtl Jr took 6 of 9
S5Koutnik2Brandtl Jr2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoutnikBrandtl JrK − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.238.3+3.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoutnikBrandtl JrBasisWin rate · lifetime177 / 361 vs 257 / 53849%47.8%177 / 361 vs 257 / 538Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KoutnikKoutnik 1.53/Brandtl Jr 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64%
Koutnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Brandtl Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 18:30V. Koutnik4311138113A. Brandtl Jr365111191
LSep 19 · 17:25V. Koutnik27741151A. Brandtl Jr3911116113
WSep 8 · 18:25V. Koutnik44111210113A. Brandtl Jr355101281
LSep 8 · 16:25V. Koutnik4011712101A. Brandtl Jr4471114123
WAug 26 · 13:25V. Koutnik4291111113A. Brandtl Jr32119661
WAug 20 · 11:25V. Koutnik331111113A. Brandtl Jr246990
WAug 10 · 18:00V. Koutnik50911118113A. Brandtl Jr4811891192
WAug 10 · 16:50V. Koutnik49911117113A. Brandtl Jr3411711142
LJul 17 · 18:29V. Koutnik50111111892A. Brandtl Jr48713611113
LJul 17 · 16:55V. Koutnik4411811682A. Brandtl Jr43511511113
V. Koutnik10
LOct 3 · 10:55J. Sebl2.20111116113V. Koutnik1.6111591192WOct 1 · 17:50T. Rein2.601191141V. Koutnik1.4513115113WOct 1 · 16:20T. Cerveny Jr2.25871171V. Koutnik1.5711117113WOct 1 · 15:50T. Rein2.50961141V. Koutnik1.5011118113LOct 1 · 14:50V. Koutnik1.7311116662D. Zelezny2.00781111113WSep 22 · 18:00J. Sebl2.00411571V. Koutnik1.7311511113WSep 22 · 16:20V. Koutnik1.8351111123D. Zelezny1.831148101LSep 22 · 15:20V. Koutnik1.61611491J. Sebl2.2011511113WSep 22 · 14:20V. Koutnik1.5713115143T. Rein2.2511311121WSep 20 · 10:34V. Koutnik1.831111113Z. Muhlhauser1.834580
A. Brandtl Jr10
LOct 3 · 12:55J. Sebl1.331111113A. Brandtl Jr3.255580LOct 3 · 11:25A. Brandtl Jr3.5011112101D. Zelezny1.2813311123WSep 29 · 17:18A. Krcil1.734580A. Brandtl Jr2.001111113LSep 29 · 16:50D. Zelezny1.361111113A. Brandtl Jr3.008470LSep 29 · 15:50A. Brandtl Jr2.1093100L. Jirka1.671111123LSep 29 · 14:20A. Krcil2.00731111113A. Brandtl Jr1.7311117792LSep 28 · 09:55A. Brandtl Jr1.616121151Z. Muhlhauser2.2011146113WSep 28 · 09:25Z. Muhlhauser1.839450A. Brandtl Jr1.831111113WSep 28 · 08:25A. Brandtl Jr3.00115611113L. Rek1.3661111992LSep 28 · 06:55T. Cerveny Jr1.8311139113A. Brandtl Jr1.838111191
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