TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Vojtech Koutnik vs Daniel Zelezny 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117118611611611
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:39 and never touched: 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koutnik to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVojtech Koutnik above · Daniel Zelezny below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 88 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Vojtech Koutnik at 55.7%
88 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Koutnik 12–6 Daniel Zelezny Daniel Zelezny has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3955.7%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 2.2pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Koutnik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-6 in 18
Koutnik
Wrong
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koutnik 1636 vs Zelezny 1578
Koutnik
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koutnik 80% vs Zelezny 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koutnik 70% vs Zelezny 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koutnik +2 · Zelezny +3
Zelezny
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Koutnik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoutnik 1.727 / Zelezny 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Koutnik)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13226497
Koutnik1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 9 days ago (Sep 22) · back after a break
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 47 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it76% 35 of 46
Zelezny2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 29)
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog53% won 8 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back33% 3 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoutnik7wins
AwayZelezny3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKoutnik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoutnik80%4 of 5
AwayZelezny40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koutnik5Zelezny5n = 10split evenly
S2Koutnik7Zelezny3n = 10Koutnik took 7 of 10
S3Koutnik4Zelezny6n = 10Zelezny took 6 of 10
S4Koutnik6Zelezny4n = 10Koutnik took 6 of 10
S5Koutnik3Zelezny1n = 4Koutnik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoutnikZeleznyK − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.839.5+3.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoutnikZeleznyBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 360 vs 115 / 21748.9%53%176 / 360 vs 115 / 217Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.340.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KoutnikKoutnik 1.73/Zelezny 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.7%
Koutnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zelezny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 16:20V. Koutnik3951111123D. Zelezny331148101
WMay 16 · 16:55V. Koutnik511161011133D. Zelezny48511129112
WMar 29 · 09:25V. Koutnik4211118123D. Zelezny317311101
WMar 11 · 18:25V. Koutnik47118115123D. Zelezny45611711102
LMar 11 · 15:20V. Koutnik37811991D. Zelezny3711411113
WMar 9 · 16:55V. Koutnik511081111113D. Zelezny4512117782
LFeb 28 · 18:25V. Koutnik4411118592D. Zelezny39421111113
WFeb 16 · 16:55V. Koutnik44111111113D. Zelezny34137771
LNov 4 · 19:15V. Koutnik312172101D. Zelezny49111511123
WNov 4 · 18:10V. Koutnik4211119113D. Zelezny34691181
V. Koutnik10
WOct 1 · 15:50T. Rein2.50961141V. Koutnik1.5011118113WSep 22 · 18:00J. Sebl2.00411571V. Koutnik1.7311511113WSep 22 · 16:20V. Koutnik1.8351111123D. Zelezny1.831148101LSep 22 · 15:20V. Koutnik1.61611491J. Sebl2.2011511113WSep 22 · 14:20V. Koutnik1.5713115143T. Rein2.2511311121WSep 20 · 10:34V. Koutnik1.831111113Z. Muhlhauser1.834580LSep 20 · 09:25V. Koutnik1.701448111J. Cousin2.02121111133WSep 20 · 07:55J. Sebl1.8591390V. Koutnik1.851115113WSep 20 · 07:25Z. Muhlhauser1.9511711952V. Koutnik1.74911311113WSep 19 · 18:30A. Brandtl Jr2.105111191V. Koutnik1.6511138113
D. Zelezny10
WOct 1 · 15:20T. Cerveny Jr2.2011104101D. Zelezny1.6181211123WSep 29 · 17:48D. Zelezny1.61115911123L. Jirka2.20911114102WSep 29 · 16:50D. Zelezny1.361111113A. Brandtl Jr3.008470WSep 29 · 15:20A. Krcil1.8310790D. Zelezny1.831211113LSep 29 · 14:50L. Jirka2.10111110113D. Zelezny1.67751281WSep 22 · 17:30D. Zelezny1.44811811113T. Rein2.6311711982LSep 22 · 16:20V. Koutnik1.8351111123D. Zelezny1.831148101WSep 22 · 15:50T. Rein2.63614811112D. Zelezny1.441112119133WSep 22 · 14:50D. Zelezny2.10981211113J. Sebl1.67111110872WSep 15 · 17:50T. Rein2.40920491D. Zelezny1.50111811113
Upcoming Matches
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D. Zelezny
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