TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Cerveny Jr vs Daniel Zelezny 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11810124111012––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:19 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeDaniel Zelezny to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Cerveny Jr above · Daniel Zelezny below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 78 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Daniel Zelezny at 57.7%
78 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Cerveny Jr 1–3 Daniel Zelezny Tomas Cerveny Jr has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:1957.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Zelezny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Zelezny
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerveny Jr 1546 vs Zelezny 1578
Zelezny
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerveny Jr 60% vs Zelezny 80%
Zelezny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerveny Jr 60% vs Zelezny 80%
Zelezny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerveny Jr -1 · Zelezny +3
Zelezny
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Zelezny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerveny Jr 2.20 / Zelezny 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Zelezny)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13226899
Cerveny Jr2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 41 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back23% 14 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Zelezny1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 29)
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 31 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it73% 19 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeCerveny Jr1wins
AwayZelezny3wins
3 of 4 to a deciderZelezny leads 3–1, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerveny Jr2Zelezny2n = 4split evenly
S2Cerveny Jr2Zelezny2n = 4split evenly
S3Cerveny Jr2Zelezny2n = 4split evenly
S4Cerveny Jr1Zelezny3n = 4Zelezny took 3 of 4
S5Cerveny Jr1Zelezny2n = 3Zelezny took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricCerveny JrZeleznyC − ZBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match43.846.8−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCerveny JrZeleznyBasisWin rate · lifetime336 / 604 vs 115 / 21755.6%53%336 / 604 vs 115 / 217Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.140.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZeleznyCerveny Jr 2.20/Zelezny 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Zelezny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zelezny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 15 · 16:20T. Cerveny Jr44119111122D. Zelezny50611913113
LJan 27 · 07:50T. Cerveny Jr32711771D. Zelezny4111811113
LJan 3 · 10:25T. Cerveny Jr51614111372D. Zelezny571116811113
WJan 3 · 08:50T. Cerveny Jr48111196113D. Zelezny3976111142
T. Cerveny Jr10
LOct 1 · 14:20T. Cerveny Jr1.3691011101T. Rein3.0011129123WSep 30 · 14:05T. Cerveny Jr1.401111123T. Rein2.7589100LSep 30 · 12:20T. Cerveny Jr1.338540S. Matousch3.251111113WSep 30 · 11:20T. Cerveny Jr1.4011211113T. Rein2.75811651WSep 30 · 10:20T. Cerveny Jr2.7551111113F. Dvorak1.40117781WSep 28 · 10:23L. Rek1.33841471T. Cerveny Jr3.25111112113LSep 28 · 08:55T. Cerveny Jr3.001181171L. Rek1.3613119113WSep 28 · 07:55T. Cerveny Jr1.83911612113Z. Muhlhauser1.83119111062WSep 28 · 06:55T. Cerveny Jr1.8311139113A. Brandtl Jr1.838111191LSep 26 · 10:30A. Brandtl Jr1.83128511113T. Cerveny Jr1.83101111962
D. Zelezny10
WOct 1 · 14:50V. Koutnik1.7311116662D. Zelezny2.00781111113WSep 29 · 17:48D. Zelezny1.61115911123L. Jirka2.20911114102WSep 29 · 16:50D. Zelezny1.361111113A. Brandtl Jr3.008470WSep 29 · 15:20A. Krcil1.8310790D. Zelezny1.831211113LSep 29 · 14:50L. Jirka2.10111110113D. Zelezny1.67751281WSep 22 · 17:30D. Zelezny1.44811811113T. Rein2.6311711982LSep 22 · 16:20V. Koutnik1.8351111123D. Zelezny1.831148101WSep 22 · 15:50T. Rein2.63614811112D. Zelezny1.441112119133WSep 22 · 14:50D. Zelezny2.10981211113J. Sebl1.67111110872WSep 15 · 17:50T. Rein2.40920491D. Zelezny1.50111811113
Upcoming Matches
T. Cerveny Jr
Nothing scheduled
D. Zelezny
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