TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Cerveny Jr vs Simon Matousch 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811511411––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:15 and never touched: 74.5% is still 74.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Cerveny Jr to win
74.5%
74.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Cerveny Jr above · Simon Matousch below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 50 set 3, 4-11 · our read held Tomas Cerveny Jr at 74.5%
50 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Cerveny Jr 23–13 Simon Matousch Simon Matousch has won 13 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1574.5%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 0.5pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Cerveny Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
23-13 in 36
Cerveny Jr
Wrong
gap of 10 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerveny Jr 1579 vs Matousch 1343
Cerveny Jr
Wrong
both rated, 236 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerveny Jr 80% vs Matousch 20%
Cerveny Jr
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerveny Jr 70% vs Matousch 30%
Cerveny Jr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerveny Jr +3 · Matousch -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Cerveny Jr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matousch form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerveny Jr 1.333 / Matousch 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 26%
Edge (Cerveny Jr)-0.5pp
TT Cup · #13219112
Cerveny Jr1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 66 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it83% 53 of 64
Matousch3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog28% won 20 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back13% 5 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerveny Jr9wins
AwayMatousch1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCerveny Jr leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerveny Jr100%6 of 6
AwayMatousch25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerveny Jr6Matousch4n = 10Cerveny Jr took 6 of 10
S2Cerveny Jr8Matousch2n = 10Cerveny Jr took 8 of 10
S3Cerveny Jr9Matousch1n = 10Cerveny Jr took 9 of 10
S4Cerveny Jr4Matousch1n = 5Cerveny Jr took 4 of 5
S5Cerveny Jr2Matousch1n = 3Cerveny Jr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCerveny JrMatouschC − MBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.932.3+7.6per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCerveny JrMatouschBasisWin rate · lifetime335 / 601 vs 147 / 32855.7%44.8%335 / 601 vs 147 / 328Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
Cerveny JrCerveny Jr 1.33/Matousch 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.5%
Cerveny Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Matousch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 10:20T. Cerveny Jr351211123S. Matousch27107100
WSep 3 · 14:04T. Cerveny Jr331111113S. Matousch113530
WSep 3 · 10:20T. Cerveny Jr45118411113S. Matousch4081111552
LAug 25 · 11:20T. Cerveny Jr49106161162S. Matousch571211149113
WMay 28 · 06:55T. Cerveny Jr4271111133S. Matousch391198111
WFeb 24 · 08:55T. Cerveny Jr341111123S. Matousch1945100
WFeb 20 · 13:20T. Cerveny Jr341211113S. Matousch2510780
WFeb 17 · 09:50T. Cerveny Jr49811116133S. Matousch41115311112
WFeb 4 · 14:25T. Cerveny Jr4591311123S. Matousch4011118101
WDec 9 · 13:20T. Cerveny Jr331111113S. Matousch248880
T. Cerveny Jr10
WSep 30 · 11:20T. Cerveny Jr1.4011211113T. Rein2.75811651WSep 30 · 10:20T. Cerveny Jr2.7551111113F. Dvorak1.40117781WSep 28 · 10:23L. Rek1.33841471T. Cerveny Jr3.25111112113LSep 28 · 08:55T. Cerveny Jr3.001181171L. Rek1.3613119113WSep 28 · 07:55T. Cerveny Jr1.83911612113Z. Muhlhauser1.83119111062WSep 28 · 06:55T. Cerveny Jr1.8311139113A. Brandtl Jr1.838111191LSep 26 · 10:30A. Brandtl Jr1.83128511113T. Cerveny Jr1.83101111962WSep 26 · 08:55P. Kubat2.381081131T. Cerveny Jr1.5312112113LSep 26 · 08:25A. Brandtl Jr1.83911911123T. Cerveny Jr1.83116115102WSep 26 · 07:25T. Cerveny Jr2.10111112113Z. Muhlhauser1.67791481
S. Matousch10
LSep 30 · 11:50F. Dvorak1.3091111113S. Matousch3.40118681LSep 30 · 10:50S. Matousch4.3312512342T. Rein1.2010111011113LSep 26 · 18:04R. Zeman1.25361112113S. Matousch3.75111161062WSep 26 · 17:25O. Hula1.571011118102S. Matousch2.25125911123LSep 26 · 16:25S. Matousch3.757370R. Zeman1.251111113LSep 26 · 14:55P. Cibik1.57121111113S. Matousch2.25143771WSep 21 · 13:30S. Matousch1.831112123J. Vintr1.83510100LSep 21 · 12:20S. Matousch1.4411118582M. Kolbusovsky2.63891111113WSep 21 · 11:20S. Matousch1.91612127113J. Vintr1.801110101172LSep 21 · 10:20S. Matousch3.00107100T. Cerveny Jr1.361211123
Upcoming Matches
T. Cerveny Jr
Nothing scheduled
S. Matousch
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