TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Simon Matousch
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118119811511811
Michal Kolbusovsky
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:03 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeSimon Matousch to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSimon Matousch above · Michal Kolbusovsky below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 93 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Simon Matousch at 67.7%
93 points played in total.
H2H Simon Matousch 4–3 Michal Kolbusovsky Michal Kolbusovsky has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:03What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Matousch
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matousch 1378 vs Kolbusovsky 1219
Matousch
Wrong
both rated, 159 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matousch 20% vs Kolbusovsky 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matousch 40% vs Kolbusovsky 10%
Matousch
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matousch +1 · Kolbusovsky -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Matousch)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolbusovsky form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatousch 1.44 / Kolbusovsky 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Matousch)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13166607
Matousch1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite49% won 24 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it67% 20 of 30
Kolbusovsky2.63
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog34% won 53 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back19% 17 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMatousch4wins
AwayKolbusovsky3wins
Matousch leads 4–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatousch100%3 of 3
AwayKolbusovsky75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matousch3Kolbusovsky4n = 7Kolbusovsky took 4 of 7
S2Matousch2Kolbusovsky5n = 7Kolbusovsky took 5 of 7
S3Matousch4Kolbusovsky3n = 7Matousch took 4 of 7
S4Matousch4Kolbusovsky1n = 5Matousch took 4 of 5
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home457%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricMatouschKolbusovskyM − KBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match35.335.4−0.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatouschKolbusovskyBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 336 vs 206 / 45745.8%45.1%154 / 336 vs 206 / 457Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatouschMatousch 1.44/Kolbusovsky 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Matousch · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolbusovsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 11 · 10:04S. Matousch45121111113M. Kolbusovsky381013781
LAug 11 · 06:55S. Matousch2410860M. Kolbusovsky341211113
WJul 24 · 10:20S. Matousch3911116113M. Kolbusovsky34691181
WJun 29 · 11:20S. Matousch3961111113M. Kolbusovsky35118791
WMay 29 · 08:25S. Matousch44111111113M. Kolbusovsky32813561
LMar 13 · 15:00S. Matousch35871191M. Kolbusovsky4211119113
LMar 13 · 12:20S. Matousch214980M. Kolbusovsky331111113
S. Matousch10
WSep 21 · 13:30S. Matousch1.831112123J. Vintr1.83510100WSep 21 · 11:20S. Matousch1.91612127113J. Vintr1.801110101172LSep 21 · 10:20S. Matousch3.00107100T. Jr1.361211123LSep 16 · 21:23P. Cibik1.7211111113S. Matousch2.00851171LSep 16 · 20:20S. Matousch1.8310111081P. Cibik1.8312512113LSep 16 · 19:20S. Matousch1.6711911882Z. Vyskocil2.10611611113LSep 16 · 18:20S. Matousch2.7513137462T. Barsa1.4011111111113LSep 14 · 22:00S. Matousch1.9013871182L. Vich1.801111117113WSep 14 · 20:20P. Cibik1.676760S. Matousch2.101111113WSep 14 · 19:50L. Vich1.618570S. Matousch2.201111113
M. Kolbusovsky10
LSep 21 · 11:50T. Jr1.53111111113M. Kolbusovsky2.38691381WSep 21 · 10:50M. Kolbusovsky3.00119115113J. Vintr1.3671181142LSep 18 · 17:25M. Nemec1.91911911153M. Kolbusovsky1.80118112132LSep 18 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.63413941P. Cibik1.44111111113LSep 18 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky5.003690R. Zeman1.141111113LSep 18 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.259416101M. Nemec1.57111114123LSep 17 · 21:23O. Sebek1.73118511113M. Kolbusovsky2.0071111682LSep 17 · 20:20O. Sebek1.36111112113M. Kolbusovsky3.00691481LSep 17 · 19:50M. Dlask1.501111113M. Kolbusovsky2.508260LSep 17 · 18:50M. Kolbusovsky2.25411341M. Nemec1.5711911113
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