TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ales Brandtl Jr vs Tomas Cerveny Jr 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111169111151210
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Cerveny Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Brandtl Jr above · Tomas Cerveny Jr below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 95 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Tomas Cerveny Jr at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Ales Brandtl Jr 27–24 Tomas Cerveny Jr Tomas Cerveny Jr has won 24 of their 51 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:36What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-24 in 51
Jr
Correct
gap of 3 in 51, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1483 vs Jr 1559
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 80% vs Jr 60%
Jr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 70% vs Jr 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -1 · Jr +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.83 / Jr 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jr)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13197467
Jr1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 23)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Jr1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr4wins
AwayJr6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr57.1%4 of 7
AwayJr100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr7Jr3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S2Jr1Jr9n = 10Jr took 9 of 10
S3Jr6Jr4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S4Jr3Jr7n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S5Jr3Jr2n = 5Jr took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrJrJr − JrBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.142.9−1.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrJrBasisWin rate · lifetime257 / 544 vs 332 / 60447.2%55%257 / 544 vs 332 / 604Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.83/Jr 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 10:50A. Jr49121511113T. Jr401017671
LSep 15 · 17:20A. Jr381378101T. Jr45111111123
WSep 15 · 15:20A. Jr531291011113T. Jr48101112962
LSep 9 · 13:30A. Jr30116581T. Jr3741111113
LSep 9 · 10:50A. Jr4913911972T. Jr481111411113
WAug 12 · 17:23A. Jr49125129113T. Jr491011101172
LAug 12 · 15:20A. Jr4171111572T. Jr45116611113
LJul 23 · 21:25A. Jr28861131T. Jr3711114113
LJul 23 · 18:20A. Jr26551151T. Jr4211119113
WJul 20 · 17:55A. Jr48117811113T. Jr3861111642
A. Jr10
WSep 26 · 09:25Z. Muhlhauser1.33111881A. Jr3.2581111113LSep 23 · 17:50A. Jr1.459880J. Vintr2.601111113WSep 23 · 16:50Z. Dusek2.105780A. Jr1.671111113WSep 23 · 15:50A. Jr1.57114911113M. Cesak2.2591111782WSep 23 · 14:20J. Vintr2.067611101A. Jr1.5511119123WSep 20 · 18:30A. Jr2.2012119113J. Dohnal1.611041191WSep 20 · 16:55T. Rein1.61117381A. Jr2.2031111113WSep 20 · 16:25J. Dohnal1.401111561A. Jr2.7561311113WSep 20 · 15:25A. Jr2.401111711133B. Budik1.51513116112LSep 20 · 14:30L. Rek1.401111113A. Jr2.807780
T. Jr10
WSep 26 · 08:55P. Kubat2.381081131T. Jr1.5312112113WSep 26 · 07:25T. Jr2.10111112113Z. Muhlhauser1.67791481WSep 25 · 13:25T. Jr1.5312119113T. Rein2.381051181LSep 25 · 12:20T. Jr2.10711111182S. Holik1.67111347113LSep 25 · 11:20T. Jr2.636740F. Dvorak1.441111113WSep 25 · 10:20T. Jr1.501111113T. Rein2.508760WSep 22 · 22:00P. Cibik3.25117881T. Jr1.3391111113WSep 22 · 20:50T. Barsa1.7311991182T. Jr2.00311118113LSep 22 · 19:50T. Jr1.3071011101P. Cibik3.4011126123WSep 22 · 18:20L. Vich1.83118861T. Jr1.8371111113
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