TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Zdenek Dusek vs Ales Brandtl Jr 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Zdenek Dusek
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511711811––––
Ales Brandtl Jr
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:23 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeAles Brandtl Jr to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZdenek Dusek above · Ales Brandtl Jr below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 53 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Ales Brandtl Jr at 55.5%
53 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Dusek 21–18 Ales Brandtl Jr Ales Brandtl Jr has won 18 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:23What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-18 in 39
Dusek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dusek 1320 vs Jr 1492
Jr
Correct
both rated, 172 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dusek 20% vs Jr 100%
Jr
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dusek 20% vs Jr 80%
Jr
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dusek -2 · Jr +6
Jr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Jr) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDusek 2.10 / Jr 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Jr)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13183896
Dusek2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 47 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back23% 15 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Jr1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 40 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it90% 17 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it67% 28 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDusek6wins
AwayJr4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDusek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDusek75%3 of 4
AwayJr50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dusek4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S2Dusek7Jr3n = 10Dusek took 7 of 10
S3Dusek6Jr4n = 10Dusek took 6 of 10
S4Dusek5Jr3n = 8Dusek took 5 of 8
S5Dusek1Jr2n = 3Jr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDusekJrD − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.239.0+2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDusekJrBasisWin rate · lifetime191 / 467 vs 256 / 54240.9%47.2%191 / 467 vs 256 / 542Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrDusek 2.10/Jr 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 11:25Z. Dusek199550A. Jr331111113
LAug 10 · 14:50Z. Dusek53111288142A. Jr579101111163
WJul 21 · 19:25Z. Dusek44111111113A. Jr36137881
WJun 5 · 21:25Z. Dusek48116119113A. Jr4281171152
WMay 18 · 22:03Z. Dusek4391112113A. Jr321161051
WMay 18 · 20:55Z. Dusek3811511113A. Jr34811961
LMay 8 · 18:50Z. Dusek44211121182A. Jr44112146113
WApr 29 · 17:55Z. Dusek381113143A. Jr29611120
WApr 29 · 14:20Z. Dusek48101111163A. Jr391276141
LApr 23 · 18:50Z. Dusek379121061A. Jr44111012113
Z. Dusek10
WSep 23 · 17:19M. Cesak1.501198111Z. Dusek2.5021111133LSep 23 · 15:20J. Vintr1.80913811113Z. Dusek1.91111111592LSep 23 · 14:50M. Cesak1.531111113Z. Dusek2.383430WSep 20 · 13:59C. Kratochvil1.52117151182Z. Dusek2.35511179113LSep 20 · 12:55C. Kratochvil1.5712119213Z. Dusek2.2510611191LSep 20 · 12:25L. Rek2.0011811133Z. Dusek1.737117111LSep 20 · 11:25Z. Dusek1.839550A. Jr1.831111113WSep 13 · 13:25M. Nemec2.109350Z. Dusek1.671111113LSep 13 · 12:50Z. Dusek1.837111091P. Cibik1.8311812113LSep 13 · 11:20M. Nemec2.5091111113Z. Dusek1.50115891
A. Jr10
LSep 23 · 17:50A. Jr1.459880J. Vintr2.601111113WSep 23 · 15:50A. Jr1.57114911113M. Cesak2.2591111782WSep 23 · 14:20J. Vintr2.067611101A. Jr1.5511119123WSep 20 · 18:30A. Jr2.2012119113J. Dohnal1.611041191WSep 20 · 16:55T. Rein1.61117381A. Jr2.2031111113WSep 20 · 16:25J. Dohnal1.401111561A. Jr2.7561311113WSep 20 · 15:25A. Jr2.401111711133B. Budik1.51513116112LSep 20 · 14:30L. Rek1.401111113A. Jr2.807780LSep 20 · 13:25A. Jr2.638111271L. Rek1.4411714113WSep 20 · 11:25Z. Dusek1.839550A. Jr1.831111113
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