TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Frantisek Dvorak vs Simon Matousch 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911118116118––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:44 and never touched: 76.7% is still 76.7%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Dvorak to win
76.7%
76.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Dvorak above · Simon Matousch below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 75 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Frantisek Dvorak at 76.7%
75 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Dvorak 5–2 Simon Matousch Simon Matousch has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4476.7%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
short by 0.2pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Dvorak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Dvorak
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1570 vs Matousch 1349
Dvorak
Correct
both rated, 222 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 60% vs Matousch 20%
Dvorak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 60% vs Matousch 30%
Dvorak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak -2 · Matousch -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% · Strong (leans Dvorak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.30 / Matousch 3.40
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Dvorak)-0.2pp
TT Cup · #13219255
Dvorak1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite68% won 47 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it85% 34 of 40
Matousch3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog28% won 20 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back13% 5 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeDvorak5wins
AwayMatousch2wins
2 of 7 to a deciderDvorak leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak60%3 of 5
AwayMatouschn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak5Matousch2n = 7Dvorak took 5 of 7
S2Dvorak4Matousch3n = 7Dvorak took 4 of 7
S3Dvorak5Matousch2n = 7Dvorak took 5 of 7
S4Dvorak3Matousch2n = 5Dvorak took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricDvorakMatouschD − MBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match41.735.3+6.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakMatouschBasisWin rate · lifetime161 / 292 vs 147 / 32755.1%45%161 / 292 vs 147 / 327Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.30/Matousch 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.7%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WApr 9 · 10:20F. Dvorak51991111113S. Matousch4511118782
WFeb 13 · 11:20F. Dvorak371113133S. Matousch29711110
WFeb 12 · 14:25F. Dvorak4814149113S. Matousch4312121181
WFeb 12 · 11:20F. Dvorak331111113S. Matousch198740
LDec 30 · 16:20F. Dvorak371181261S. Matousch4371114113
WDec 5 · 12:20F. Dvorak3851111113S. Matousch23114621
LJun 24 · 12:50F. Dvorak48111011882S. Matousch45312811113
F. Dvorak10
LSep 30 · 10:20T. Cerveny Jr2.7551111113F. Dvorak1.40117781LSep 25 · 13:55F. Dvorak1.671173101S. Holik2.1071111123WSep 25 · 12:50F. Dvorak1.3011119113T. Rein3.40331181WSep 25 · 11:20T. Cerveny Jr2.636740F. Dvorak1.441111113WSep 25 · 10:50S. Holik1.80691151F. Dvorak1.9111116113WSep 23 · 13:50F. Dvorak1.8081111113O. Knazik1.90114431LSep 23 · 12:20F. Dvorak1.2811116852T. Rein3.50421111113WSep 23 · 11:20F. Dvorak2.501111113D. Vojna1.509520WSep 23 · 10:20F. Dvorak1.911111123O. Knazik1.8079100LSep 16 · 14:30F. Dvorak1.6111116782S. Holik2.20651111113
S. Matousch10
WSep 30 · 12:20T. Cerveny Jr1.338540S. Matousch3.251111113LSep 30 · 10:50S. Matousch4.3312512342T. Rein1.2010111011113LSep 26 · 18:04R. Zeman1.25361112113S. Matousch3.75111161062WSep 26 · 17:25O. Hula1.571011118102S. Matousch2.25125911123LSep 26 · 16:25S. Matousch3.757370R. Zeman1.251111113LSep 26 · 14:55P. Cibik1.57121111113S. Matousch2.25143771WSep 21 · 13:30S. Matousch1.831112123J. Vintr1.83510100LSep 21 · 12:20S. Matousch1.4411118582M. Kolbusovsky2.63891111113WSep 21 · 11:20S. Matousch1.91612127113J. Vintr1.801110101172LSep 21 · 10:20S. Matousch3.00107100T. Cerveny Jr1.361211123
Upcoming Matches
F. Dvorak
Nothing scheduled
S. Matousch
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