TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Simon Matousch vs Tomas Rein 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12105111210311411
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:45 and never touched: 79.9% is still 79.9%
Graded at full timeTomas Rein to win
79.9%
79.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSimon Matousch above · Tomas Rein below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 89 set 5, 4-11 · our read held Tomas Rein at 79.9%
89 points played in total.
H2H Simon Matousch 1–7 Tomas Rein Simon Matousch has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:4579.9%Our read83.3%to break even at 1.20
short by 3.4pp83.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.20 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Rein
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-7 in 8
Rein
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matousch 1360 vs Rein 1352
Matousch
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matousch 40% vs Rein 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matousch 30% vs Rein 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matousch -1 · Rein +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% · Strong (leans Rein) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rein form (40%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatousch 4.333 / Rein 1.20
Signal prob.20% / 80%
Edge (Rein)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13219246
Matousch4.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 26)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog28% won 20 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back13% 5 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Rein1.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite70% won 54 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it80% 43 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMatousch1wins
AwayRein7wins
1 of 8 to a deciderRein leads 7–1, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatouschn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayRein100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matousch2Rein6n = 8Rein took 6 of 8
S2Matousch2Rein6n = 8Rein took 6 of 8
S3Matousch1Rein7n = 8Rein took 7 of 8
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away563%
These 8 meetings
MetricMatouschReinM − RBasisWins17−6in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match23.234.5−11.3per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatouschReinBasisWin rate · lifetime149 / 330 vs 384 / 85545.2%44.9%149 / 330 vs 384 / 855Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ReinMatousch 4.33/Rein 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.9%
Rein · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rein won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LMar 6 · 09:25S. Matousch134450T. Rein331111113
LFeb 24 · 10:55S. Matousch167450T. Rein331111113
LFeb 24 · 07:55S. Matousch156540T. Rein331111113
LFeb 20 · 14:12S. Matousch2779110T. Rein351111133
WFeb 20 · 11:20S. Matousch331111113T. Rein208480
LDec 9 · 12:50S. Matousch25114641T. Rein4181111113
LOct 15 · 18:40S. Matousch4081141162T. Rein48116119113
LMay 8 · 12:50S. Matousch172960T. Rein331111113
S. Matousch10
WSep 30 · 12:20T. Cerveny Jr1.338540S. Matousch3.251111113LSep 30 · 11:50F. Dvorak1.3091111113S. Matousch3.40118681LSep 26 · 18:04R. Zeman1.25361112113S. Matousch3.75111161062WSep 26 · 17:25O. Hula1.571011118102S. Matousch2.25125911123LSep 26 · 16:25S. Matousch3.757370R. Zeman1.251111113LSep 26 · 14:55P. Cibik1.57121111113S. Matousch2.25143771WSep 21 · 13:30S. Matousch1.831112123J. Vintr1.83510100LSep 21 · 12:20S. Matousch1.4411118582M. Kolbusovsky2.63891111113WSep 21 · 11:20S. Matousch1.91612127113J. Vintr1.801110101172LSep 21 · 10:20S. Matousch3.00107100T. Cerveny Jr1.361211123
T. Rein10
LSep 30 · 11:20T. Cerveny Jr1.4011211113T. Rein2.75811651WSep 29 · 22:35B. Budik1.41116111162T. Rein2.75811133113LSep 29 · 20:55B. Budik1.411213113T. Rein2.60101180LSep 29 · 20:25R. Muller1.50116711113T. Rein2.5081111392WSep 29 · 19:25T. Rein2.3811811153J. Cousin1.536112131LSep 27 · 17:25R. Muller1.4411116143T. Rein2.637811121LSep 27 · 16:50T. Rein2.3811612372R. Muller1.536111011113LSep 27 · 15:20J. Dohnal1.4411114113T. Rein2.63751171LSep 27 · 14:50J. Sebl1.731111123T. Rein2.0073100LSep 25 · 13:25T. Cerveny Jr1.5312119113T. Rein2.381051181
Upcoming Matches
S. Matousch
T. Rein
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