TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Rein vs Radek Muller 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1166111210311711
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:07 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeRadek Muller to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Rein above · Radek Muller below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 88 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Radek Muller at 60.8%
88 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Rein 3–3 Radek Muller Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:07What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Muller
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rein 1360 vs Muller 1434
Muller
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rein 0% vs Muller 20%
Muller
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rein 20% vs Muller 50%
Muller
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rein -7 · Muller -2
Rein
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Muller) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muller form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRein 2.38 / Muller 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Muller)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13205788
Rein2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 94 of 288
Down 0–1, comes back20% 37 of 185
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 102
Muller1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite52% won 35 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it75% 27 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeRein3wins
AwayMuller3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRein66.7%2 of 3
AwayMuller66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rein3Muller3n = 6split evenly
S2Rein3Muller3n = 6split evenly
S3Rein3Muller3n = 6split evenly
S4Rein1Muller3n = 4Muller took 3 of 4
S5Rein2Muller1n = 3Rein took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricReinMullerR − MBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match37.741.7−4.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReinMullerBasisWin rate · lifetime385 / 856 vs 166 / 33345%49.9%385 / 856 vs 166 / 333Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.739.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MullerRein 2.38/Muller 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Muller · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Muller won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 16 · 22:38T. Rein4112812362R. Muller5310111011113
LSep 16 · 20:25T. Rein37713891R. Muller44111111113
WAug 23 · 21:28T. Rein50911118113R. Muller4411981152
WAug 23 · 18:20T. Rein42114412113R. Muller50911111092
LJul 3 · 19:25T. Rein2347120R. Muller361111143
WJun 5 · 06:55T. Rein331111113R. Muller236980
T. Rein10
LSep 27 · 17:25R. Muller1.4411116143T. Rein2.637811121LSep 27 · 15:20J. Dohnal1.4411114113T. Rein2.63751171LSep 27 · 14:50J. Sebl1.731111123T. Rein2.0073100LSep 25 · 13:25T. Jr1.5312119113T. Rein2.381051181LSep 25 · 12:50F. Dvorak1.3011119113T. Rein3.40331181LSep 25 · 11:50T. Rein2.50921181S. Holik1.5011118113LSep 25 · 10:20T. Jr1.501111113T. Rein2.508760LSep 24 · 13:55B. Budik1.4491111113T. Rein2.60111871WSep 24 · 12:20P. Vodal1.83411981T. Rein1.8311911113LSep 24 · 11:50B. Budik1.511011411113T. Rein2.3712211372
R. Muller10
WSep 27 · 17:25R. Muller1.4411116143T. Rein2.637811121LSep 27 · 15:50R. Muller1.67611101182J. Sebl2.10116128113LSep 27 · 14:20J. Dohnal2.001111113R. Muller1.739990WSep 22 · 10:10R. Muller1.92712911113F. Balcar1.78111011892LSep 22 · 08:55R. Muller2.109890M. Filipek1.671111113LSep 22 · 07:55R. Muller2.10612111242B. Budik1.601114210113WSep 22 · 06:55R. Muller2.251111133F. Balcar1.5787110WSep 16 · 22:38R. Muller1.2810111011113T. Rein3.5012812362LSep 16 · 20:55C. Kratochvil1.6713111143R. Muller2.1011118121WSep 16 · 20:25T. Rein2.00713891R. Muller1.73111111113
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