TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Radek Muller vs Frantisek Balcar 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Radek Muller
Home
1.92
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111210911118119
Frantisek Balcar
Away
1.78
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingRadek Muller above · Frantisek Balcar below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 99 set 5, 11-9
99 points played in total.
H2H Radek Muller 5–7 Frantisek Balcar Radek Muller has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Muller beat Balcar 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Balcar)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Balcar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuller 1.92 / Balcar 1.78
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Balcar)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13176973
Muller1.92
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 12 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back22% 4 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Balcar1.78
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 25 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it76% 16 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMuller3wins
AwayBalcar7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBalcar leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMuller50%3 of 6
AwayBalcar100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Muller6Balcar4n = 10Muller took 6 of 10
S2Muller5Balcar5n = 10split evenly
S3Muller5Balcar5n = 10split evenly
S4Muller3Balcar5n = 8Balcar took 5 of 8
S5Muller1Balcar4n = 5Balcar took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMullerBalcarM − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.442.1+0.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMullerBalcarBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 330 vs 121 / 24250%50%165 / 330 vs 121 / 242Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalcarMuller 1.92/Balcar 1.78
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.1%
Balcar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Muller won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 06:55R. Muller351111133F. Balcar2687110
LSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller568121111142F. Balcar591110139163
LJul 17 · 10:30R. Muller4411581192F. Balcar45311119113
LJul 17 · 08:25R. Muller381171281F. Balcar45131110113
LJul 7 · 19:55R. Muller571391111132F. Balcar55151159153
LApr 20 · 12:25R. Muller32591171F. Balcar3711114113
LMar 11 · 07:55R. Muller35117981F. Balcar3961111113
LFeb 24 · 12:50R. Muller4011116752F. Balcar45661111113
WOct 8 · 09:35R. Muller54111199143F. Balcar51891111122
WOct 8 · 07:20R. Muller331111113F. Balcar193790
R. Muller10
LSep 22 · 08:55R. Muller2.109890M. Filipek1.671111113LSep 22 · 07:55R. Muller2.10612111242B. Budik1.601114210113WSep 22 · 06:55R. Muller2.251111133F. Balcar1.5787110WSep 16 · 22:38R. Muller1.2810111011113T. Rein3.5012812362LSep 16 · 20:55C. Kratochvil1.6713111143R. Muller2.1011118121WSep 16 · 20:25T. Rein2.00713891R. Muller1.73111111113WSep 16 · 19:25R. Muller1.731112113J. Cousin2.0011030WSep 14 · 10:05F. Marat2.104780R. Muller1.651111113LSep 14 · 08:55R. Muller1.9175111152M. Filipek1.80111197113LSep 14 · 07:55R. Muller1.61810111162F. Marat2.20111292113
F. Balcar10
LSep 22 · 09:25B. Budik1.874111319113F. Balcar1.83116151752WSep 22 · 08:25F. Balcar1.91612811133M. Filipek1.801110119112LSep 22 · 06:55R. Muller2.251111133F. Balcar1.5787110WSep 21 · 14:45F. Balcar1.801111113M. Filipek1.906670WSep 21 · 13:25F. Balcar1.571281110113P. Chlumsky2.25101171232WSep 21 · 11:55A. Kral1.5711911882F. Balcar2.25811811113WSep 21 · 11:25M. Filipek1.801312111372F. Balcar1.911514711113LSep 16 · 13:59F. Balcar2.00891391T. Hnizdil1.73111111113WSep 16 · 12:20F. Balcar1.8011118113B. Budik1.90781181WSep 16 · 11:20F. Balcar2.00481111113T. Hnizdil1.7311113972
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