TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ales Brandtl Jr vs Daniel Zelezny 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11131132111012––
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:04 and never touched: 77.5% is still 77.5%
Graded at full timeDaniel Zelezny to win
77.5%
77.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Brandtl Jr above · Daniel Zelezny below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 73 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Daniel Zelezny at 77.5%
73 points played in total.
H2H Ales Brandtl Jr 1–4 Daniel Zelezny Ales Brandtl Jr has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:0477.5%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
short by 0.3pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Zelezny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Zelezny
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brandtl Jr 1505 vs Zelezny 1618
Zelezny
Correct
both rated, 113 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brandtl Jr 20% vs Zelezny 100%
Zelezny
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brandtl Jr 50% vs Zelezny 90%
Zelezny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brandtl Jr +1 · Zelezny +5
Zelezny
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% · Strong (leans Zelezny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezny form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrandtl Jr 3.50 / Zelezny 1.285
Signal prob.23% / 78%
Edge (Zelezny)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13235528
Brandtl Jr3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 29)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 74 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back28% 31 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back12% 8 of 65
Zelezny1.28
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 36 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it76% 22 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBrandtl Jr1wins
AwayZelezny4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderZelezny leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrandtl Jrn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayZelezny80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brandtl Jr0Zelezny5n = 5Zelezny took 5 of 5
S2Brandtl Jr1Zelezny4n = 5Zelezny took 4 of 5
S3Brandtl Jr1Zelezny4n = 5Zelezny took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away360%
These 5 meetings
MetricBrandtl JrZeleznyB − ZBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set05−5of 5Avg pointsper match29.636.6−7.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrandtl JrZeleznyBasisWin rate · lifetime258 / 545 vs 122 / 22547.3%54.2%258 / 545 vs 122 / 225Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.240.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZeleznyBrandtl Jr 3.50/Zelezny 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.5%
Zelezny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zelezny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 29 · 16:50A. Brandtl Jr198470D. Zelezny331111113
LSep 15 · 14:50A. Brandtl Jr2697100D. Zelezny341111123
WJul 4 · 11:25A. Brandtl Jr46581111113D. Zelezny4411116972
LOct 15 · 16:10A. Brandtl Jr33611791D. Zelezny3911611113
LJul 24 · 14:20A. Brandtl Jr249690D. Zelezny331111113
A. Brandtl Jr10
WOct 3 · 12:25V. Koutnik1.53125111192A. Brandtl Jr2.381011135113WSep 29 · 17:18A. Krcil1.734580A. Brandtl Jr2.001111113LSep 29 · 16:50D. Zelezny1.361111113A. Brandtl Jr3.008470LSep 29 · 15:50A. Brandtl Jr2.1093100L. Jirka1.671111123LSep 29 · 14:20A. Krcil2.00731111113A. Brandtl Jr1.7311117792LSep 28 · 09:55A. Brandtl Jr1.616121151Z. Muhlhauser2.2011146113WSep 28 · 09:25Z. Muhlhauser1.839450A. Brandtl Jr1.831111113WSep 28 · 08:25A. Brandtl Jr3.00115611113L. Rek1.3661111992LSep 28 · 06:55T. Cerveny Jr1.8311139113A. Brandtl Jr1.838111191WSep 26 · 10:30A. Brandtl Jr1.83128511113T. Cerveny Jr1.83101111962
D. Zelezny10
WOct 3 · 11:55J. Sebl1.83118411122D. Zelezny1.83911118143WOct 2 · 22:25D. Zelezny1.32911119113J. Cousin3.0011981162WOct 2 · 21:25J. Cousin2.6391040D. Zelezny1.441112113WOct 2 · 20:25D. Zelezny2.005101111113J. Dohnal1.7311127892WOct 2 · 18:55T. Rein2.75711751D. Zelezny1.4011811113WOct 1 · 17:20D. Zelezny1.6111811113T. Cerveny Jr2.20911661LOct 1 · 16:50D. Zelezny1.402970T. Rein2.751111113WOct 1 · 15:20T. Cerveny Jr2.2011104101D. Zelezny1.6181211123WOct 1 · 14:50V. Koutnik1.7311116662D. Zelezny2.00781111113WSep 29 · 16:50D. Zelezny1.361111113A. Brandtl Jr3.008470
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