TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Rein vs Daniel Zelezny 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711118711511––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:50 and never touched: 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeDaniel Zelezny to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Rein above · Daniel Zelezny below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 71 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Daniel Zelezny at 69.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Rein 5–7 Daniel Zelezny Tomas Rein has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:5069.5%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.9pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Zelezny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Zelezny
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rein 1399 vs Zelezny 1589
Zelezny
Correct
both rated, 190 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rein 40% vs Zelezny 80%
Zelezny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rein 50% vs Zelezny 70%
Zelezny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rein -1 · Zelezny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Zelezny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRein 2.75 / Zelezny 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Zelezny)-1.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13231833
Rein2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 99 of 298
Down 0–1, comes back20% 38 of 191
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 105
Zelezny1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 33 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it74% 20 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRein4wins
AwayZelezny6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZelezny leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRein50%2 of 4
AwayZelezny66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rein4Zelezny6n = 10Zelezny took 6 of 10
S2Rein5Zelezny5n = 10split evenly
S3Rein6Zelezny4n = 10Rein took 6 of 10
S4Rein3Zelezny4n = 7Zelezny took 4 of 7
S5Rein1Zelezny2n = 3Zelezny took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricReinZeleznyR − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.539.1−0.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReinZeleznyBasisWin rate · lifetime386 / 859 vs 118 / 22144.9%53.4%386 / 859 vs 118 / 221Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.840.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZeleznyRein 2.75/Zelezny 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Zelezny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zelezny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 16:50T. Rein331111113D. Zelezny182970
LSep 22 · 17:30T. Rein4611711982D. Zelezny49811811113
LSep 22 · 15:50T. Rein50614811112D. Zelezny561112119133
LSep 15 · 17:50T. Rein42920491D. Zelezny51111811113
WSep 15 · 15:50T. Rein4491311113D. Zelezny351111941
LSep 11 · 14:50T. Rein31691241D. Zelezny43111110113
WJul 4 · 11:55T. Rein511171111113D. Zelezny4213117382
LJun 4 · 16:50T. Rein2371060D. Zelezny341112113
WMay 29 · 17:20T. Rein331111113D. Zelezny259880
LMay 29 · 14:50T. Rein321174101D. Zelezny3841111123
T. Rein10
LOct 1 · 17:50T. Rein2.601191141V. Koutnik1.4513115113WOct 1 · 16:50D. Zelezny1.402970T. Rein2.751111113LOct 1 · 15:50T. Rein2.50961141V. Koutnik1.5011118113WOct 1 · 14:20T. Cerveny Jr1.3691011101T. Rein3.0011129123LSep 30 · 14:05T. Cerveny Jr1.401111123T. Rein2.7589100WSep 30 · 12:50T. Rein3.4014101111113F. Dvorak1.30121213652LSep 30 · 11:20T. Cerveny Jr1.4011211113T. Rein2.75811651WSep 30 · 10:50S. Matousch4.3312512342T. Rein1.2010111011113WSep 29 · 22:35B. Budik1.41116111162T. Rein2.75811133113LSep 29 · 20:55B. Budik1.411213113T. Rein2.60101180
D. Zelezny10
WOct 1 · 17:20D. Zelezny1.6111811113T. Cerveny Jr2.20911661LOct 1 · 16:50D. Zelezny1.402970T. Rein2.751111113WOct 1 · 15:20T. Cerveny Jr2.2011104101D. Zelezny1.6181211123WOct 1 · 14:50V. Koutnik1.7311116662D. Zelezny2.00781111113WSep 29 · 17:48D. Zelezny1.61115911123L. Jirka2.20911114102WSep 29 · 16:50D. Zelezny1.361111113A. Brandtl Jr3.008470WSep 29 · 15:20A. Krcil1.8310790D. Zelezny1.831211113LSep 29 · 14:50L. Jirka2.10111110113D. Zelezny1.67751281WSep 22 · 17:30D. Zelezny1.44811811113T. Rein2.6311711982LSep 22 · 16:20V. Koutnik1.8351111123D. Zelezny1.831148101
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